| 00:00:00 | >> This is "gps," the global
public square.
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| 00:00:01 | Welcome to all of you in the
united states and around the
I'll give you my take on the
tragic devastation in japan.
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| 00:00:07 | But first, here is the latest.
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| 00:00:12 | The aftermath of the earthquake
and tsunami.
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| 00:00:14 | Japan's prime minister says his
country is grappling with its
worst crisis since world war ii.
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| 00:00:18 | It's a race against time for
rescue workers.
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| 00:00:21 | The official death toll now
stands at more than 1,200.
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| 00:00:24 | But it will rise.
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| 00:00:27 | One regional official says the
deaths in his area alone were
undoubtedly in the tens of
thousands.
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| 00:00:35 | 200,000 People living near a
nuclear power plant in fukushima
have been evacuated.
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| 00:00:41 | There was explosion in a reactor
yet and there are fears that
there he will will be another
explosion at a different reactor
at the same plant.
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| 00:00:53 | The world is trying to help out.
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| 00:00:55 | ronald reagan arrived
off the coast on sunday and made
dozens of trips delivering aid.
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| 00:01:02 | Meanwhile, more video is
emerging of the sheer scale of
what's hit japan.
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| 00:01:07 | Take a look at this.
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| 00:01:13 | In a moment, we'll go live to
japan.
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| 00:01:16 | But, first, here is my take.
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| 00:01:19 | There have been many ways to try
to make sense of the tsunami in
japan.
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| 00:01:24 | Many analogies from history.
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| 00:01:26 | The simplest for me is if you
take the earthquake that hit new
zealand a few weeks ago and
multiplied it by 1,000, would
you get the one that hit japan.
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| 00:01:36 | Or if you remember the one that
devastated haiti last year?
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| 00:01:39 | This one is several hundred
times more powerful.
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| 00:01:43 | That's why despite all of the
precautions and preparedness,
the devastation has been so
great.
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| 00:01:49 | In fact, most experts agree that
in terms of safety plans and
procedures, japan has done
almost everything right.
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| 00:01:55 | It's too soon to draw any
important lessons here.
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| 00:01:59 | Too soon to do anything but
mourn.
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| 00:02:03 | But this tragedy does remind us,
no matter how much advance work
a country does.
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| 00:02:08 | No matter how well the buildings
are built, nothing can prepare
you for this.
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| 00:02:13 | But the work has helped.
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| 00:02:15 | The death toll in japan would be
much, much worse.
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| 00:02:18 | If not for all of the safety
codes and drills they have
adopted.
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| 00:02:22 | Even in their nuclear power
plants, things could have gotten
much, much worse.
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| 00:02:27 | The one area where japan did not
adequately prepare itself was
economics.
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| 00:02:35 | Japan has not managed itself,
its economy, with the awareness
it might suffer from earthquakes
and thus needs room to be able
to take on the large-scale debt
that rebuilding its economy will
take.
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| 00:02:48 | Quite to the contrary, japan has
a death toll almost twice the
size of its gdp.
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| 00:02:55 | The worst of all rich countries.
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| 00:02:56 | In four years, japan's debt will
hit 250% of gdp.
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| 00:03:04 | And that's before this
earthquake that will add tens
and tens of billions of dollars
to the tab.
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| 00:03:09 | While no one can ever prepare
for a tsunami like this, we all
do need to keep our eyes on
worst-case scenarios.
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| 00:03:20 | Natural disasters, wars,
financial meltdowns, all can
happen.
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| 00:03:23 | And we should keep that in mind
when managing our lives, our
companies, our countries.
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| 00:03:28 | We need to give ourselves enough
civility and resilience to
handle such crises.
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| 00:03:36 | Japan did not do that in the
economic case, but isn't it time
for to us start worrying about
we in the united states have
done that?
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| 00:03:43 | Or will we wait until the next
crisis hits, until the next
earthquake?
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| 00:03:45 | Okay.
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| 00:03:50 | Let's go to our reporters on the
june li is monitoring the search
and rescue operation in sendai.
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| 00:03:56 | Let's kick off with stan grant
in tokyo.
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| 00:03:58 | What is the worst-case scenario
with the nuclear power plants?
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| 00:04:07 | >> You used the case worst-case
scenario.
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| 00:04:10 | They are living it out this is
worst than they ever would have
expected or hoped for.
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| 00:04:19 | Two words you do not want to
hear associated with a nuclear
power plant and one of those
words is meltdown.
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| 00:04:22 | The other is catastrophe.
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| 00:04:24 | The word meltdown is being used.
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| 00:04:26 | Listen to what the nuclear
safety agency has been saying.
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| 00:04:29 | They are working on two
assumptions.
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| 00:04:31 | One is that in one of the
reactors there is a high
possibility of a meltdown.
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| 00:04:40 | The other assumption is of
another possibility, a lower
possibility of a meltdown in the
third reactor.
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| 00:04:49 | Two reactors affected there.
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| 00:04:49 | What are they doing about it?
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| 00:04:50 | They are pumping more sea water
into them to try and get the
water level up to cool the
reactor.
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| 00:05:01 | So far, that hasn't been
working.
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| 00:05:08 | But at the same time, radiation
is being detected in the
atmosphere.
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| 00:05:14 | The government says not to a
degree that's going to harm
people.
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| 00:05:16 | But they had clear the people
out, as you mentioned, 200,000
people have been pushed out of
that area, evacuated from their
homes.
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| 00:05:24 | 20 Kilometer, 12 or 13-mile
explosion zone.
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| 00:05:25 | All of this to avert that other
word, catastrophe.
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| 00:05:26 | They hope all of the fail-safe
procedures actually kick in and
save the day.
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| 00:05:29 | Right now, it's a race against
time, that's how it's been
described.
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| 00:05:36 | Fair to say they hadn't been
winning that race, the reactors
continue to be watched.
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| 00:05:39 | Fareed.
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| 00:05:47 | >> Is it fair to say that
because radiation levels do not
seem to be that high, that even
in this worst-case scenario, it
does not appear that people's
lis are in danger in the
surrounding areas?
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| 00:06:04 | >> Reporter: Exactly.
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| 00:06:05 | At this point, the government
has stressed levels are not high
enough to cause harm.
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| 00:06:12 | People have been -- have been
affected, though.
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| 00:06:13 | Are you talking about more than
100 people so far who have come
into contact with some
radiation, and they are being
tested to see just how much
iodine is being handed out to
people to guard against the
impact of any radiation.
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| 00:06:22 | If people do come into contact.
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| 00:06:24 | You are right.
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| 00:06:25 | At this stage, the levels are
not that high.
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| 00:06:28 | If you look at the nuclear
reactor itself and talks about a
meltdown.
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| 00:06:31 | Look at the two extremes here.
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| 00:06:33 | Chernobyl on the one hand,
meltdown, explosion, radiation,
and poured into the atmosphere.
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| 00:06:38 | At least 50 people directly
killed from that.
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| 00:06:43 | And three-mile island in the
united states.
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| 00:06:44 | There a meltdown as well.
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| 00:06:46 | But it was contained.
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| 00:06:47 | That's what they would be hoping
for here.
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| 00:06:49 | If there is indeed a meltdown if
it gets worse, they are hoping
this backup procedures,
redundancy safety procedures
actually kick in.
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| 00:07:01 | If something fails, something
else kicks in, stops from
getting worse.
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| 00:07:02 | That's really what they are
working for, fareed.
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| 00:07:06 | >> Thank you, stan.
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| 00:07:07 | That's what we're hoping for.
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| 00:07:08 | No matter how spectacular the
story, we're hoping the huge
damage will be limited.
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| 00:07:14 | Which seems to be the case.
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| 00:07:19 | We will be back right after
this.
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| 00:08:11 | ..
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| 00:08:14 | Today.
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| 00:08:56 | Feel.
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| 00:10:25 | >>> Welcome back to gps.
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| 00:10:27 | We lost our connection a moment
ago.
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| 00:10:29 | Let's bring her back on the
latest from sent day.
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| 00:10:44 | >> Reporter: What any person
will tell you who is a part of
any sort of large-scale
disaster, 72 hours,
extraordinarily critical in the
early days of a search and
rescue operation.
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| 00:10:49 | That is the case here.
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| 00:10:51 | The choppers have been up during
the daylight hours.
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| 00:10:53 | Those choppers have fallen
silent at night.
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| 00:11:01 | They can't eyeball the ground.
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| 00:11:04 | They can't see if people are on
their rooftops, waving flags.
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| 00:11:07 | Trying to get rescued.
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| 00:11:09 | The good news is the
neighborhood we were in sendai,
we did see some of the rescue
crews bring down gurneys from
the helicopters and pluck people
out of their houses.
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| 00:11:21 | People who clearly looked
injured, but they were getting
rescued.
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| 00:11:23 | Unfortunately, as hours do tick
on, we're hearing from the
military crews on the ground, as
well as search and rescue teams,
they are beginning lose hope.
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| 00:11:29 | So much debris, so much water,
that there are so many people
missing.
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| 00:11:34 | That they simply can't account
for everybody.
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| 00:11:36 | We still are looking for many
people, many have lost relatives
who are still missing.
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| 00:11:45 | Entertainment, everyone is
holding on to hope.
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| 00:11:48 | Hoping that somehow they are
going to be able to find their
mother or brother or child.
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| 00:11:52 | As those hours tick by, that
window of hope doesppr to be
closing.
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| 00:11:57 | >> Kyung lah, thank you so much.
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| 00:11:58 | Tragic story.
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| 00:12:00 | Japan and the world,
understandably focused on the
human aspects of this disaster.
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| 00:12:09 | The economic disaster, not quite
as saddening, will perhaps be
just as debilitating.
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| 00:12:12 | I'm joined by two guests.
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| 00:12:15 | A senior strategist with mitsuo
international.
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| 00:12:19 | In london and from doha, a
senior fellow of the american
foundation.
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| 00:12:24 | Steve clemons.
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| 00:12:29 | Let me ask you, how bad do you
think this will be in economic
terms for japan?
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| 00:12:37 | >> As you reported earlier, i
think it's far too early to
assess.
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| 00:12:40 | The japanese government has
announced that we will probably
be getting tremors continuously
for over a month, far too early
to assess these damages.
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| 00:12:54 | So far, it's been very clear
that a lot of infrastructures
have been hit, particularly on
the transportation side,
procurement side, which would
take a very long time to
restore.
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| 00:13:06 | If you look at the past example,
for example, in the kobe
earthquake, we had two
supplementary budgets the year
after the earthquake hit kobe.
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| 00:13:15 | The supplemented budget would
have to be hit naturally.
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| 00:13:22 | Fixed naturally.
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| 00:13:23 | In addition to usage of reserves
we have, and obviously, as you
reported earlier, this does not
cast a very rosy picture for the
japanese financial conditions.
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| 00:13:32 | >> Steve, what do you think this
reveals about -- about japan?
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| 00:13:44 | I think -- I think we lost steve
again.
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| 00:13:48 | >> I'm here.
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| 00:13:48 | I'm sorry.
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| 00:13:49 | >> Sorry.
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| 00:13:52 | Can you hear me now?
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| 00:13:53 | >> I did not hear the question,
fareed.
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| 00:13:56 | >> What do you think this
reveals about japan?
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| 00:13:59 | You know, does it reveal
inherent weaknesses?
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| 00:14:05 | >> I think that what this
reveals shows fault lines in the
earth that create tremendous
stress in a society as you noted
in haiti or in japan, often show
fault lines in that society.
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| 00:14:17 | And in japanese society, second
only to zimbabwe in its national
debt, it's got to figure out how
it's going to reinvent itself
and rebuild itself, but it's one
of the oldest populations in the
world.
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| 00:14:30 | It's no longer growing.
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| 00:14:35 | Its population is shrinking and
remains a society that looks at
immigration as a very toxic
choice for itself.
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| 00:14:42 | We recently saw just in the last
week and a half, the resignation
of japan's foreign minister for
taking a modest donation from a
72-year-old korean japanese
woman who had literally lived in
japan almost her entire life and
had known him since the second
grade.
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| 00:15:06 | For japan to reinvent itself and
find its way out of the
tremendous tragedy it has to
figure out what it's going to
be.
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| 00:15:12 | Is it going to be the argentina
of asia and slowly slip away
into nothing?
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| 00:15:19 | Not being able to deal with
these challenges?
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| 00:15:20 | Or is it going to generate a new
vision of itself?
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| 00:15:24 | When japan has been hit hard in
the past, it's been remarkably
resilient society, and it's
overcome enormous challenges.
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| 00:15:31 | But this is a staggering
challenge for it.
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| 00:15:35 | And it needs to begin looking at
how it's going to figure out how
to bring back a young workforce
into the nation and begin to
assimilate other people and
reinvent what it means to be
japan and japanese.
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| 00:15:51 | >> So much, steve, of the
problem, seems to be a political
system that is deeply
dysfunctional, prime ministers
come and go.
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| 00:15:59 | Scandals erupt.
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| 00:16:01 | Nothing seems to ever get done.
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| 00:16:02 | Could this earthquake be a kind
of wakeup call to the political
system?
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| 00:16:06 | >> Certainly.
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| 00:16:10 | Naoto kan, the fifth prime
minister in five years in japan.
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| 00:16:14 | Sort of a revolving door.
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| 00:16:18 | He became famous in japan for
leadership nationally in a
tainted blood scandal in which
thousands of people were
infected with hiv.
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| 00:16:25 | He had enormous leadership
skills and captured the
imagination of the japanese
public.
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| 00:16:33 | He has been unable to do that as
prime minister.
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| 00:16:38 | Sometimes there's the adage that
great leaders are forged out of
great crises.
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| 00:16:47 | And challenges.
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| 00:16:48 | This gives him an opportunity
and frankly the democratic party
of japan has demonstrated that
they have met the challenge and
capture the imagination of the
japanese public and jump ahead
of what japan will be.
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| 00:17:01 | If they don't, and japan, what
I've cough encalled in
relations, taken for
granted ally, slowly slip and
not find its way forward.
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| 00:17:18 | There's a dark side to this.
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| 00:17:19 | In japan, when things haven't
gone well, when you saw leader
after leader, after leader as
we've seen in japan's political
cycles.
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| 00:17:26 | Unable to deal with the
challenges at hand.
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| 00:17:29 | You see a dark nationalism that
grows, because of both a
frustration that japan isn't
hitting its mark and at the same
time a frustration that the --
the paralysis that has dominated
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