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Aired at 01:00 PM on Tuesday, Feb 19, 2013 (2/19/2013)      View all transcripts from this day

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00:00:00Be sea worthy to be in the marina.
00:00:01He'll have to make repairs or get a haul out.
00:00:09>> For robert and john, this call is over, but they head out on patrol, where they will continue to keep long beach afloat.
00:00:17Closed captioning provided by the weather channel >>> winter storm q is ramping up and will affect millions of people in the next couple days.
00:00:26Starting right now in spots like los angeles.
00:00:28>> And the midwest and central plains will get hard with winter weather.
00:00:32 louis, you're right in the cross hairs of winter storm q.
00:00:35>> Plus, we can't forget about the severe side of n system for areas of the south, like the dallas/ft. worth area.
00:00:43From the weather channel headquarters in atlanta, you're " >> happy tuesday to you.
00:00:49Welcome to this hour of "weather " I'm paul goodloe.
00:00:51>> I'm kyla grogan.
00:00:53Today, we're tracking all aspects of winter storm q.
00:00:56>> Right now, we're watching another system making its messy ride across much of the rush hours across philadelphia, new york city, even boston there.
00:01:03All along the i-95 corridor.
00:01:06Mostly rain, though, with this system.
00:01:08But wet roudz could still make it a longer trip back home or wherever you're heading this afternoon and evening.
00:01:15Let's head to kyla who is tracking the rain.
00:01:17>> If you're on the east coast, you have had that umbrella today.
00:01:23You're going to have a rainy evening.
00:01:24New york city, as well.
00:01:25The rain right now at this hour moving across.
00:01:27We're talking about the jersey shore, new york city, long island, southern connecticut, you're all in on it.
00:01:33As we zoom out, you can also see there's a colder side to this.
00:01:36Snow, and a wintry mix of ice is happening right now in western p.a. and western new york state.
00:01:41So this is going to continue rolling on out.
00:01:44Boston, you're going to start to see some of the action as well tonight, as those showers continue, and the good news is it's a fast-moving system.
00:01:52They're going to move on out rather quickly.
00:01:54We can see the showers in new 00 tonight, that's when the heaviest showers should be in boston.
00:02:00As we head to the overnight hours, there we go and we're moving on out, leaving snow behind in the northern fringes of new england.
00:02:07New york city, let's take a look at your five-day forecast.
00:02:10Now, today, of course, we had the wind and rain to deal with.
00:02:13Still dealing with that right now.
00:02:14Tomorrow, cloudy skies.
00:02:15Temperatures pulling back a LITTLE BIT, INTO THE 30s.
00:02:19Get the scarf on tomorrow.
00:02:20It's going to be cold.
00:02:21Thursday, sunshine, but friday, here come the clouds.
00:02:26Saturday, a wintry mix happening for you.
00:02:28A little bit of a mixed bag.
00:02:30A little chilly for us tomorrow, and then the sun coming back on thursday for us, but friday, here come the clouds again.
00:02:35However, the east coast, not the only ones that are dealing with some wintry weather.
00:02:40Paul?
00:02:40>> That's right.
00:02:42Let's take you west to mammoth mountain.
00:02:45Temperatures in the teens and 20s.
00:02:48Lifts are running and snow is dumping.
00:02:50This is the sierra nevada dump, picking up perhaps a foot, maybe 2.
00:02:55Not the classic 6 or 8 foot dumps yet, but this is going to be a comfeet.
00:03:01Wax up the boards, going to love this right now.
00:03:03Let's talk about this baz this is also winter storm q we're tracking here that was affecting the sierra nevada mountains, and of the ski rezourts will make out well.
00:03:15There is far more moisture to the west, and also the northwest, and all that is coming through this area as well.
00:03:21Also, kirkwood, heavenly, up towards north star, alpine, all getting at least a foot once you get above 8,000, 9,000 feet, and plenty of heavier snow on the way as well.
00:03:33Interstate 80, need chains, also highway 88.
00:03:38Look at the rain coming through and snow levels at 2,500 feet.
00:03:43Southern california, rain showers this afternoon so far, but more rain headed your way tonight.
00:03:48Snow levels there dropping down to about 3,000 feet.
00:03:52That means snow in the grapevine, all dealing with snow.
00:03:57We can time this out through the afternoon and this evening.
00:04:01So does the snow, it also rounds the southwest.
00:04:04Phoenix, rain for you.
00:04:05But tucson, just east of you, we're talking snow there.
00:04:08Flag staff, plenty of snow for you.
00:04:11Perhaps a foot or more.
00:04:12It pushes on toward new mexico, and in terms of the timing, flagstaff, a 6 out of 10.
00:04:18The snow starts tonight and continues heavily as we head throughout the day on wednesday.
00:04:22Perhaps close to a foot there as well.
00:04:24Kyla?
00:04:25>> All right, thank you so much, paul.
00:04:26The west coast may see the start of winter storm q, but the broader impacts will be felt in the central parts of the country with both a wintry side of the storm and a severe side.
00:04:36Our storm specialist carl parker is going to join us now to break down the timing of this storm.
00:04:41Now, carl, what are we seeing as far as when we can see the impacts start to take place?
00:04:46>> It's going to start happening tomorrow and pick up into tomorrow night and thursday morning in the plains.
00:04:51What is interesting is this is not a tremendously powerful area of low pressure, but what we do have with the system is a lot of cold air and a lot of moisture coming up from the gulf of mexico.
00:05:02Let's take a look at the timing and how this is going to work out.
00:05:04A lot of snow and ice on the way through the plains and midwest.
00:05:07There could be a significant ice storm, as a matter of fact.
00:05:10A big part of what is driving this is high pressure, sprawling area of cold that is coming down into the central plains.
00:05:16Then you have moisture, the gulf of mexico opening up, and the moisture is going to be moving up and into the plains over top of that cold air.
00:05:23Now, the low pressure, while it's going to be certainly respectable, is actually going to be weakening as it comes across the plains.
00:05:30Nonetheless, with all that cold and all that moisture, we're going to see a widespread travel mess along interstate 80, 70, 35, and 44.
00:05:39And in fact, between 44 and 30, again, there could be significant icing.
00:05:43So let's take a look at how all this times out.
00:05:46Snow is going to be breaking out tomorrow, certainly by the afternoon, if not sooner across parts of kansas and nebraska.
00:05:52Then it will increase in intensity into late tomorrow and very early on thursday.
00:05:58And by early thursday morning, notice these more bluish features here.
00:06:03That's some of the more intense banding setting up across parts of kansas.
00:06:08As the same time, as moisture is overriding cold air at the surface, we'll begin to see a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rabe and perhaps significant ice accumulation in northern arkansas and southern parts of missouri.
00:06:22At the same time, very strong wind developing, not because the low is so strong, but because of the pressure difference between that low and the very strong high off to the north, so there could be near blizzard conditions.
00:06:33Then the low will be weakening.
00:06:35The ice potential moves into the ohio valley, and snow will come up towards chicago.
00:06:39We'll talk more about totals later.
00:06:41>> Thank you, carl.
00:06:42Coming up, we're talking about the severe side of winter storm q.
00:06:46>> Our severe werkt expert greg forbes tells us where we could see a tornado associated with this storm system.
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00:10:20>>> Here's a look at your weather countdown.
00:10:22Today, the top five coldest temperatures in u.s. history.
00:10:26Number five takes us west to island park, idaho.
00:10:29It hit 60 below zero in january of 1943.
00:10:32Part of the reason, elevation.
00:10:34It sits nearly 6300 feet above sea level.
00:10:37Beating it by one degree is maybell, colorado.
00:10:40In the northwest part of the state.
00:10:42Our number four city hit 61 degrees below zero in february of 1985.
00:10:48Number three, the riverside ranger station at yellowstone national park in wyoming.
00:10:53In february of 1933, the mercury plunged to 66 degrees below zero.
00:10:59Our number two city takes us a mile above sea level.
00:11:02It's not denver.
00:11:04Rogers pass, montana, dropped to 70 degrees below 0 on january 20th, 1954.
00:11:09And the number one coldest , prospect creek, alaska.
00:11:14The mining tone is most known for gold and ports, but in 1971, the rare gem was negativae 80 degree reading on the thermometer.
00:11:24That's a look at your weather countdown.
00:11:26>> Wow, negative 80 degrees.
00:11:28In addition to the snow, there's also severe side to winter storm q we're watching.
00:11:33Our severe weather expert, greg forbes, shows us where and when the tletd of severe tornadoes will be a concern.
00:11:40>> We're going to see a severe weather threat roll across the gulf coast states as we have seen so many times this winter.
00:11:47This time, wednesday night, a low pressure front forms in southwest texas.
00:11:51The warm, moist, real unstable air stays south of the warm front.
00:11:55North, it's a cooler, drier east flow, and that will keep a shallow cool layer there, but low left jet, fast winds, just a few thousand feet above the ground, pushes the air over the front and allows for hail as far north as southern parts of oklahoma.
00:12:12A jet stream, disturbance within that as well.
00:12:15Most of the energy will be heading to the cooler air, including the cold pocket aloft.
00:12:20It will begin to make a fringe hit on the unstable air on wednesday night.
00:12:24So that's when the severe threat will begin, from childress to san antonio and san angelo, up into the dallas area.
00:12:32A low tornado threat in the southern corridor of the red shaded area.
00:12:36As we head into thursday, the weather system continues to push east.
00:12:40The low, more toward the north and east.
00:12:42The cold front, due east, and the warm front does not move too far to the north.
00:12:46That means the warm, moist air is limited in how big of an extent it covers.
00:12:52We may get hail north of the warm front.
00:12:55The upper cold pocket begins to angle more toward the winter part of the system rather than charging east toward the warm, unstable air at the surface.
00:13:04It's not a situation in which everything is coming together for severe weather.
00:13:09With that warm front, with the flow, we'll have some severe weather and at least some tornado threat by thursday evening.
00:13:17The upper cold air pocket continuing to move away from the moisture.
00:13:21Here's the outlook on thursday, spotty damaging winds, some hail, and isolated tornadoes, anywhere from the east parts of texas, across louisiana, into mississippi.
00:13:29I have given a tornado condition index of 3 along parts of mississippi and louisiana.
00:13:35About a 30% chance of a tornado.
00:13:38Stay safe.
00:13:38Back to you.
00:13:39>> Thanks, dr. forbes.
00:13:41Q heads this way, we have been dealing with rain right now across the northeast.
00:13:44A live look at new york city.
00:13:4546 Degrees.
00:13:46Light rain in central park, but this is doing a number at the airports.
00:13:50LaGUARDIA, TALKING ABOUT A 64-Minute delay right now.
00:13:52You have some rain and some low ceilings.
00:13:55But we're talking over two 15 now in philadelphia with all of the rain coming in there and low clouds in the forecast, calling for rain to move out of the east.
00:14:05Now we start talking about winter storm q giving us rain, perhaps thunderstorms in dallas.
00:14:10Could slow us down.
00:14:12Denver, snow, heavy snow comes in toward the afternoon and evening hours.
00:14:16Houston, we also have showers, perhaps thunderstorms.
00:14:19Could give you minor delays as we head throughout the afternoon on your wednesday.
00:14:22Kyla.
00:14:23>> Thank you, paul.
00:14:24Coming up next on "weather center live," we are talking temperatures we'll show you how things are shaping up across the country.
00:14:31Plus, at 40 past the hour, we're answering your questions in this week's segment of ask the weather channel.
00:14:38Tonight's focus, the rain and the snow coming from winter storm q, which we are tracking for you.
00:14:42We'll be right back.
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00:19:53Weather with winter storm q as it moves into california.
00:19:56This is the northern valley just north of chico, south of redding, a tornado warning for butte, and glen counties until 2:45 p.m. local time.
00:20:09It could be producing a tornado near vina, moving east at 5 miles per hour.
00:20:15Watch out around anita, corning, even squaw hill as wi could be dealing with a developing tornado here in the central valley, northern valley here in northern california.
00:20:26Kyla?
00:20:26>> All right, thank you, paul.
00:20:28We welcome everyone back.
00:20:29We're going to take a live look at miami and minneapolis, where temperatures could not be any more different.
00:20:34Parts of florida might see record highs this weekend while minneapolis, you have seen single digits the last couple days.
00:20:41Check out the snow on the ground.
00:20:43You have been nowhere near your average temperature.
00:20:45YOU SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER0s, Minneapolis.
00:20:47And yes, that is certainly not where we have been.
00:20:50And not what you have been feeling as you have been under a windchill advisory today in minneapolis.
00:20:56We're talking about record heat in orlando.
00:20:58Let's take a look at the five-day forecast here.
00:21:00You can see the temperatures are just about to soar.
00:21:03The average should be about 70, MID-70s.
00:21:06We're not going to hit that at all this week.
00:21:0977 Tomorrow, and boom, into the 80s AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND Friday.
00:21:13Check out saturday.
00:21:1489 Degrees as a high.
00:21:16That's what you call record heat if you're from florida, you know what I'm talking about.
00:21:20Here's what we're talking about saturday.
00:21:22We could see a record.
00:21:24Your record is 88 degrees.
00:21:26We're predicting you're going to hit 89.
00:21:30Awfully close in other places.
00:21:33Daytona beach, could be 86 for you.
00:21:35As we head further south in florida, some are going to come close.
00:21:39May not break the record, but we're up there.
00:21:41Talking about a record of 88 degrees in west palm beach.
00:21:4485 Is your predicted high.
00:21:45In miami, 89 is the record, and 87 is your predicted high.
00:21:49You're going to the daytona 500 this weekend, you better bring sunscreen and water to stay hydrated because check out this.
00:21:57Temperatures, a high 68 degrees, but we're going to shoot right on up as we head through the week.
00:22:0286 Degrees for you in daytona beach, and it will not be different if you're looking at minneapolis's forecast.
00:22:10Bitter cold temperatures, and that's what they're dealing with right now.
00:22:14We're talking about terrible temperatures.
00:22:168 Degrees.
00:22:17Freezing, paul.
00:22:18>> Cold there, but also cold an issue into st. louis.
00:22:2132 Degrees right now, has been IN THE LOW 30s ALL DAY LONG.
00:22:25Your average is 46, so well below average.
00:22:28Get this, in terms of snow, we're also below average, only 7 inches so far this winter.
00:22:33We should be around 14, but we have in store for us some snow, maybe even a wintry mix, all courtesy of winter storm q.
00:22:40Let's take a look at what that means for you.
00:22:44The wintry mix.
00:22:45We're going to start with snow.
00:22:46We have cold air throughout the atmosphere.
00:22:48So if it's deep enough, it's all snow from the top of the clouds to the ground, but then tomorrow afternoon, as q gets closer, we'll have an infiltrating layer of warm air aloft.
00:23:02It melts the snow and rain and when the cold air is deep enough, we have ice pellets forming.
00:23:07The concern is not that.
00:23:09It's when we have a deeper layer of warm air, so there's not enough cold air to refreeze the rain drops, but temperatures have been below freezing at the ground, then you have freezing rain.
00:23:21That's not a good combination, and that is in our forecast for louis, all because of winter storm q.
00:23:27Kyla?
00:23:27>> All right, thank you, paul.
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00:29:01--Captions by VITAC-- www.vitac.com >>> We have breaking news to tell you about right now.
00:29:09A tornado warning in northern california right now.
00:29:12Doppler radar indicates a paubltd of weather that could make a tornado a reality.
00:29:20We're talking about butte and tehama counties.
00:29:24Anita, kourning, and squaw hill until 2:45 pacific time.
00:29:29Eastern time, 5:45 p.m.
00:29:31This is a time you want to take shelter if you're in this area.
00:29:34Butte and tehama counties under a tornado warning at this hour.
00:29:38You want to go to a place away from any windows and let anyone you know in this area know what's happening right now.
00:29:44We're going to continue to track this, but a tornado warning has popped up in northern california.
00:29:49That will be until 2:45 p.m.
00:29:52 eastern time.
00:29:55>> And we want to thank you for joining us for this half hour of " I'm kyla grogan.
00:30:00Paul goodloe is with carl parker in our global forecast center.
00:30:04We're going to hear from both of them in a minute about the extended impact of winter storm q.
00:30:09First, let's check in on the rain on the east coast.
00:30:12We're starting to see a little bit of rain in boston right now.
00:30:16Light sprinkles.
00:30:17I don't know if you can make it out there yet, but I'm seeing it on the radar and it's going to head your way and going to get a bit more.
00:30:24Hang on and get ready to get your umbrellas out because the rain is coming.
00:30:31The east coast has been dealing with the rain all day today.
00:30:33It's going to have some impact, so we're dealing with rainy weather, showers, they're approaching.
00:30:38They're just about there for you, boston.
00:30:40They're going to continue into the evening.
00:30:42The showers starting to move on through.
00:30:44We have them all the way down from the mid-atlantic all the way up to new england.
00:30:48As we zoom out, there's a colder side to this, too.
00:30:51 and western new york, and icy conditions around albany.
00:30:56If you're traveling on i-80, i-90, take it easy because icy conditions can make it very dangerous.
00:31:02The mid-atlantic, a majority of the showers have moved through, but we have the actual line where the front is.
00:31:09, you might not be out of it yet.
00:31:11See a little more showers coming your way.
00:31:13Let's track this tomorrow and take a look.
00:31:15The snow showers aren't going to be in the major cities along the east coast.
00:31:19We'll see them to the west and north.
00:31:22Northern parts of new england, it's going to be cold there.
00:31:25Sunny skies tomorrow in washington, d.c.
00:31:2834 In new york city, 36 in boston, and the sun back in action tomorrow.
00:31:30Take a look at our temperatures right here.
00:31:33You can see our next wintry weather is going to be on sunday.
00:31:36And carl and paul, they are following all the winter weather.
00:31:39>> That's right, kyla.
00:31:41Winter storm q making its way onshore, even southern california seeing this, but this one, big rain, also big snow for the mountains.
00:31:49>> And they're clearing things out now in los angeles.
00:31:51That's the good news when they get stormy weather there.
00:31:54I think we have a live picture from l.a.
00:31:55You can see some blue sky.
00:31:58It's nite to see the mountains for a change in l.a.
00:32:01It's often not the case.
00:32:03>> Snow levels getting down at times close to 3,000 feet.
00:32:07That will impact some of the highway passes, and they can see , something a lot of people don't get to see in a typical day in southern california.
00:32:19This system will clear it out and drop the snow.
00:32:21>> A rare sight.
00:32:22Let's talk about what's going to happen with winter storm q in the west.
00:32:26We'll show you the radar picture, snow, a band of snow is now coming across into central parts of california.
00:32:31Here is the visible satellite picture.
00:32:34You can see that conveyer of moisture right there.
00:32:36Notic speckled appearance of the cloud, a lot of cold air, dropping the snow levels to a couple thousand feet in the sierra.
00:32:47Heavy snow reported at blue canyon.
00:32:50We'll expand the picture and you can see the conveyer driving into the sierra and will drop down into southern california such that tonight, north of los angeles, this evening, really, we're going to see the rain and snow coming in, and snow levels will get down to about 3,000 feet.
00:33:05The grapevine is about 4,000 feet, so there could be some serious travel concerns there.
00:33:09And then the snow makes its way across and into arizona.
00:33:13By tomorrow morning.
00:33:13So we're talking about a pretty good bit of snow for the mountains.
00:33:17>> A foot or more in flagstaff, also las vegas, if you look outside, you'll see snow rimming the valley.
00:33:25>> There's a look at the snow going forward, here in southern parts of utah, 6 to 12, and same story there.
00:33:32The big story is going to be when the storm comes out into the plains.
00:33:36It's interesting because it's not going to be an incredibly strong area of low pressure.
00:33:41There will however be this huge area of high pressure to the north, streaming cold air down and into the situation.
00:33:47Then warm and humid air moving in aloft there, and the result is a widespread travel mess across interstate 80, 70, 35, 44, and even down to 30.
00:33:57I want to take a look at some of the timing of all this.
00:34:00You see the snow breaking out tomorrow across kansas and nebraska.
00:34:03It will increase in intensity into late tomorrow, and then by thursday morning, really coming down here across parts of kanls kansas, and this area in pink, this is the sleet and freezing rain as warmer air moves in over top of very cold air.
00:34:20The surface is going to be stubborn to move out.
00:34:22We'll also see the winds picking up out of the east, around kansas city and up towards 70 and 80.
00:34:28Heavy snowfall rates potentially for a long period of time.
00:34:311 To 2 inches per hour, and in the all of that will be moving to the midwest.
00:34:35The storm is going to be weakening through the course of the day on thursday.
00:34:40Again, enough moisture and enough cold air to make things very interesting, and we're thinking now probably 12 to 18 inches right across interstate 80.
00:34:48Lincoln and out into north platte, and reaching down into northern parts of kansas.
00:34:53That's going to be around hazen, and 6 to 12 around des moines and kansas city, and along the 80 corridor further east, but only 1 to 3 in chicago as that storm is going to be weakening.
00:35:05>> And cities like columbia, louis, they're right on the edge where if they get more of the sleet and freezing rain, it could dut down on the snow.
00:35:15At the same time, if they get less warm air, they could see their snow levels increase.
00:35:19>> The only thing we're concerned about from 44 southward is a prolonged period of freezing rain.
00:35:25That's southern missouri and also northern arkansas.
00:35:27That's where we could see perhaps significant accumulations of ice.
00:35:31I want to show you what the models are saying about lincoln.
00:35:36Here is the average, and that's coming in right around 15 inches for lincoln.
00:35:39You see there is a spread here, but it's not a tremendous spread, and it ranges generally from 10 to 20, so it looks like a very healthy snow storm there in southern parts of nebraska, and again, a fair amount of wind for a time.
00:35:51>> Winter storm q just getting started.
00:35:55Thanks, carl.
00:35:55>> Thank you, gentlemen.
00:35:57We're not in hurricane season right now, but that doesn't mean the hurricane hunter planes aren't flying.
00:36:02In fact, they're in the air right now tracking extreme winter weather across the country thousands of feet above the ground.
00:36:09Ara larosa has more.
00:36:10>> Hurricane hunters, aircraft that fly into the eye of tropical cyclones to gather the most up to date weather data.
00:36:18But did you know in the winter months, this mission is different?
00:36:23The noaa plane is tracking extreme weather events across the country.
00:36:29>> We're tracking dropsonde, and they're weather balloons.
00:36:34Instead of going up from the ground, they're dropping from the aircraft to the surface of the what, and we're collecting air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, and feeding all that information into the models so that the 3, 5, even seven-day forecast, have a little more information to deal with.
00:36:51>> The aircraft has flown seven missions in the past nine days, tracking storms as they form off the coast of alaska and head towards the continental u.s.
00:37:03>> This system out of anchorage earlier in the week, thursday and friday, we have been flying to numerous different patterns to kind of get information on the storm that's going off the east coast now, the storm that's about to develop in the southern plains, and a system that's gone into alaska recently.
00:37:21And this is just the continuing series of those flights.
00:37:25>> One of the biggest differences between hunting hurricanes and winter storms, for the colder events, they fly around the storms rather than directly into them, but the results are the same.
00:37:34Getting the latest data to help meteorologists help track storms.
00:37:38Mara larosa, the weather channel.
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00:43:17>>> We're still tracking a tornado warning.
00:43:19Associated with our winter storm q.
00:43:21Right now, northern california, in the northern central valley here, we still have warnings going on for tehama as well as butte county.
00:43:30This is closing in on the chico area.
00:43:3345 local time.
00:43:36>> We also are getting a picture in right now.
00:43:38This one has been given to us video of sacramento that you can see, and it looks like a tornado.
00:43:45These are preliminary images, so we cannot with any certainty tell you exactly what it is.
00:43:52That will have to be deduced after the fact when they go in and see what kind of damage, but very dramatic photos.
00:43:57>> This was tweeted by the national weather service out of sacramento.
00:44:03It looks like it's extending out of perhaps a thunderstorm cloud.
00:44:06We have cold air moving in, and could also be a cold air funnel, a land spout.
00:44:11Bottom line is you should treat funnel clouds and things that look like tornadoes as tornadoes because they can have strong rotation at the ground, and that's what impacts us.
00:44:22You're being warned for a tornado.
00:44:24Another, as we talked a, another side of winter storm q is the severe weather side.
00:44:29>> Absolutely.
00:44:29Along with the dangerous wind and the possibility of tornadoes, our severe weather forbes explains where hail could cause big problems.
00:44:38>> It may be only february, but when the conditions are right, we can get quite a bit of hail, sometimes bigger than golf-ball size that looks like it will occur with the upcoming system.
00:44:48Here we'll have a warm front moving pretty slowly from the gulf of mexico, toward the north.
00:44:53An entrenched flow of cold air north of that will provide a surface over which we can push some of the warm moist air aloft as a low level jet pushes level jet pushes a few thousand feet above the ground, pushes that moisture up over top of the cold layer.
00:45:08That will give elevated thunderstorms.
00:45:10They don't typically have a whole lot in the way of tornado or damaging wind threat but they could be some pretty prolific hail producers.
00:45:17That could run across northern parts of texas into northern parts of louisiana.
00:45:21The jet stream will be also involved here.
00:45:24It will provide some of the cold air aloft as that upper cold pocket comes eastbound, especially overnight wednesday night, as we have in the red-shaded areas here, that threat for hail that will include overnight into the dallas area, into southern parts of oklahoma as well as much of texas.
00:45:39The farther south you go, the chances of damaging winds and even a chance of a tornado goes up a little bit, as we get into the richer, deeper surface based warm air.
00:45:48As we head into thursday morning, then, still the same kind of situation.
00:45:53A warm front only moving a little bit inland so the real warm surface-based air that would have bigger hail and wind threat would be limited to southeast texas.
00:46:02North of that again, we'll push that warm air aloft over top of a cold flow so there could be hail in northeast parts of texas and into northern parts of louisiana with the system.
00:46:11Looks as if the upper cold pocket then will begin to angle its way north and east instead of charging directly east over the warm moist air.
00:46:19Thursday then, hail, especially in the northern half of the red-shaded region.
00:46:23The farther south you get, little bit more chance of damaging winds and a chance of a tornado.
00:46:28Probably that chance of tornado best in the central parts of louisiana over into the central parts of mississippi.
00:46:33Stay safe.
00:46:34Severe weather threat will continue across the gulf coast states on friday and saturday and as we get later into the season, hail alley typically is in the high plains areas from east of the rockies all the way from the canadian border down into the texas panhandle and areas just a little to the east.
00:46:50Back to you.
00:46:53>> Thank you, dr. forbes.
00:46:55Now it's time for "ask the " today we field your questions about our new winter storm q and the expected blizzard conditions.
00:47:03Our first question this hour comes from facebook.
00:47:08How about chicago, how much snow could accumulate and can it be severe here?
00:47:12It's a good question.
00:47:14Certainly chicago, you've had your share of weather the last few weeks but let's talk about winter storm q, what the impacts could be and let's start off by taking a look at the five-day forecast for chicago.
00:47:26You can see here, focus in on the temperature.
00:47:28WE'RE IN THE 20s TOMORROW AS A High and thursday as well.
00:47:32Friday is when we expect the impacts from this storm to happen and take a look at your temperatures.
00:47:36We'll get up to 36 degrees.
00:47:38That means we'll be above freezing and we won't be dealing with a lot of snow making because of that.
00:47:43So as we take a look at the graphics here, talking about the snow totals, you can see 12 to 18 inches, that will be in places like nebraska and kansas, but for you, chicago, we are talking about one to three inches as you can see here, you're right on the edge where the white is and that's because we don't see the storm making the biggest impact for you.
00:48:03So do you have to worry about major severe weather?
00:48:06No.
00:48:06But will we get a little snow, yeah.
00:48:08We sure will.
00:48:08Paul?
00:48:11>> Hey, don't forget to keep sending in the questions.
00:48:14Submit them on our facebook page or twitter page as well.
00:48:16Make sure you use the hash tag asktwc if you use twitter.
00:48:21There's no rest from all the winter storms this week.
00:48:24Up next, our storm specialist breaks down the timing of winter storm q.
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00:53:51>>> It is time for your winter weather update.
00:53:53I'm storm specialist carl parker.
00:53:54We are following winter storm q which is already affecting california and will bring major impacts to the plains, not only snow but freezing rain.
00:54:03We'll talk a little bit about that.
00:54:05Let's take a look at where all this is going to be occurring.
00:54:08That freezing rain threat is going to be primarily across parts of the plains and the mid-south.
00:54:13I want to show you first of all a model forecast of the moisture that's going to come in.
00:54:18First of all, we've got colder air that will be coming down from the lakes and into the mid-south just like that, it will be cold enough at the surface to support freezing rain.
00:54:27We'll step forward here.
00:54:28What we're looking at here is the total amount of atmospheric moisture, and where you see that it's purple, it's quite dry but right in here, that's where the gulf of mexico is opening up.
00:54:38What's going to happen is that moisture is going to ride up and over top of the very cold air at the surface and there's going to be a lot of it, a real plume of moisture is going to come in here and over top of that very cold air, and in addition to that, we're also going to see strong winds with the jet stream.
00:54:54This is the strength of the jet stream wind here and right in there, that yellow area, that's that strong jet that's beginning to come out.
00:55:01As that comes out on thursday morning, as it punches right out here, it will lift that moisture that's coming up and the result is going to be heavier rain, even con vective rain or thunder over top of areas where there's very cold air at the surface.
00:55:16The result we think is going to be likely impacts here from icing in the southern part of missouri, generally from 44 and southward, then in northern arkansas from 30 on northward.
00:55:28We've got about even odds right now of seeing half an inch of ice accumulation.
00:55:32That is certainly enough accumulation to cause major disruption in the form of power outages, trees down or tree limbs down, power lines down, that type of thing.
00:55:42So get ready for that in this area.
00:55:45That's going to be developing during the day -- during the evening wednesday and continuing into early thursday.
00:55:50Then we'll see possible impacts here of the nature of power outages and certainly on the roads along 44 and farther to the west.
00:55:59So that's one part of the storm.
00:56:00The other part of the storm is, of course, the tremendous amount of snow that's going to come down a widespread area of heavy snow, 6 to 12 from the quad cities or nearly so, cedar rapids, des moines back into omaha, right across the 80 corridor.
00:56:1612 To 18 is what we're thinking, there could be some spots that get even more than that.
00:56:21That 6 to 12 area then coming down 35 and into wichita and a very, very large area of one to three.
00:56:27Notice there's not very much on the way for chicago.
00:56:29The low is actually going to be weakening as it moves farther to the east.
00:56:33Here's the timing of all that, that snow breaking out tomorrow across parts of kansas and nebraska.
00:56:39It will increase in intensity overnight wednesday into thursday morning, really coming down heavily.
00:56:45Here is that area of freezing rain we talked about and we're also going to see a pretty good bit of wind developing with that snow there across the 70 and 80 corridors.
00:56:53So major storm on the way over the next couple days.
00:56:55Guys, back to you.
00:56:57>> Thanks, carl.
00:56:59Next comes winter, then comes spring.
00:57:01And spring training.
00:57:02Let's check out the forecast.
00:57:04Winter storm q will be affecting the boys of summer in phoenix tomorrow with some light rain showers and temperatures a lot cooler.
00:57:10We are warming up as we head on towards the end of the week but florida is going to be a lot warmer.
00:57:15>> Going to be hot in florida, if you're going to see spring training there, expect to take sunscreen because check this out, 77 on wednesday, partly cloudy but 82 on thursday and 82 on friday as well.
00:57:26Going to be a warm one in the sunshine state.
00:57:28 myers as well, TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE 80s AS We head towards the end of the week.
00:57:34Stay with us.
00:57:34"Weather center live" continues at the top of the hour with plenty more on winter storm q.
00:57:38>> We'll break down the timing and show you which cities will see snow and ice and who will get more rain and thunderstorms.
00:57:45>> We leave you this hour with a live look at the west coast.
00:57:50That's not the west coast.
00:57:51Not yet.
00:57:51Here's l.a.
00:59:06>>> Winter storm q is ramping up and will impact millions of people over the next several days, starting right now in san francisco.
00:59:14>> The midwest and central plains, you'll get hit hard with winter weather.
00:59:18 louis, you're right in the crosshairs of winter storm q.
00:59:21>> Plus, there's a severe side of this system for areas of the south that includes dallas.
00:59:26We have the all-important timing of this storm coming up from the weather channel headquarters in atlanta, you're watching " welcome to this hour of "weather " I'm chris warren.
00:59:36>> I'm crystal egger.
00:59:38Today we're tracking all aspects of winter storm q.
00:59:43>> That's right.
00:59:44Right now we're watching another stem that is making things a bit messy for that ride home during the rush hour throughout parts of the northeast, along the i-95 corridor from philly to boston, including new york city.
00:59:58Mostly seeing rain with this system but the wet roads could make it a bit longer of a trip home.
01:00:02Let's go to crystal right now, who is keeping an eye on the rainfall there.
01:00:06>> Temperatures are mild enough, IN THE 40s, THAT WE'RE SEEING All rain across new york city and even up into boston, it will be rain, not snow.
01:00:16Not this time around.
01:00:17May see a brief changeover overnight tonight in the boston area.
01:00:21What you can see right now is new york city and across new jersey, southern connecticut, out across long island, it's all wet.
01:00:28Umbrellas needed tonight, slow going on the roads.
01:00:30You'll be using the windshield wipers.
01:00:33If you have any travel plans this evening.
01:00:36Up into boston and out along the cape, it's all rain.
01:00:39West of i-87, that's where it changes over to snow.
01:00:42Up across the adirondacks, some of the higher elevations looking at minor snow accumulation but all down the i-95 stretch, it's rain tonight.
01:00:51Coming in across the interior northeast, looking at scattered snow showers off the lakes.
01:00:55That will continue through tomorrow.
01:00:57Let's take you through time here.
01:00:5900 Tonight, still rain in boston, snow showers for vermont and new hampshire.
01:01:04Then by early tomorrow morning, this is a quick mover.
01:01:07We're pretty much done with this.
01:01:08This will leave in its wake some cold air and a few of those lake effect snow streamers coming off the lakes east of lake erie and ontario.
01:01:17So new york, you're cooling off tomorrow but dry, 34 degrees.
01:01:21Only 35 on thursday.
01:01:22The sun returns and then there's a chance of more winter weather coming in for the weekend.
01:01:27We'll be talking about that as we track the next big storm moving across the country.
01:01:30Chris?
01:01:32>> That's right.
01:01:33We're seeing some active weather right now throughout parts of the west.
01:01:36This is a picture that was tweeted by the national weather service office in sacramento.
01:01:41You can see, looks like a funnel cloud, possibly a tornado going all the way down.
01:01:45If it's touching the ground, that is a tornado.
01:01:49So seen here in california, were some of the storms that are popping up right now.
01:01:55Meanwhile, live look right now in san francisco.
01:01:58If you look closely, looks like the camera might be shaking just a little bit.
01:02:01You can see some of the flags right there as we look over the north -- to the north here.
01:02:07Marin county in the distance, the hills there, 46 degrees.
01:02:10Clouds and a little bit of blue sky mixed in.
01:02:12That's what we're watching right now in san francisco, keeping an eye on some showers that are going to be pushing through the bay area, like what is happening right now.
01:02:22We were just looking from san francisco to the north, in this direction.
01:02:26You saw a little bit of blue in the sky so you have the really hit and miss shower situation going on right now, and we're seeing some of the heavier showers and strong storms a little bit farther to the north associated with this storm.
01:02:39Looking a little bit bigger and wider, you see a little bit of that spin here.
01:02:44So this storm really starting to take shape.
01:02:47Eventually working its way down into southern california.
01:02:50You're going to be dealing with that threat as we track it from this afternoon, pacific time here, into the evening hours.
01:02:5700, increasing from santa barbara into ventura and eventually los angeles county this evening, could be a bit messy ride home for many people, especially with the snow levels dropping even in the southern california area, could end up with a fair amount of snow in some of the mountains there.
01:03:12Flagstaff, 6 of 10 on the con, overnight one to three inches.
01:03:16Tomorrow really getting going, four to six.
01:03:19We're going to see an additional one inch by tomorrow night.
01:03:22>> So the west coast may see the start ofinte storm q but the broader impacts are going to be felt in the central part of the country, with both a wintry side and a severe side.
01:03:32Our storm specialist carl parker joins us now to break down the timing of this massive storm.
01:03:37Carl, when you think about it, there's heavy rain, heavy snow, thunderstorms, ice, severe.
01:03:43>> Everything under the sun.
01:03:45Sometimes those things will be mixed.
01:03:46For example, there could be heavy freezing rain along with thunder that's entirely possible.
01:03:52We'll talk about where that icing is likely to occur in a moment.
01:03:55What's interesting about this situation is that it's not going to be a tremendously strong area of low pressure but we've got a lot of cold air in place and plenty of moisture coming out of the gulf of mexico.
01:04:04Let's take a look at the timing of all this and how it will unfold over the next couple days, and the ingredients as well.
01:04:10Again, you've got this sprawling area of high pressure, very strong high with cold air, arctic high pressure building down into the northern part of the country.
01:04:19That fresh cold air is going to be working with a supply of gulf moisture coming up and in some cases, that gulf moisture overriding the cold air such that we get rain falling into very cold air.
01:04:30That's why we certainly could see freezing rain.
01:04:32That's going to be a big issue potentially between i-44 and i-30 in southern missouri and northern parts of arkansas.
01:04:39But a widespread travel mess, heavy snow, blowing snow, perhaps not to the level of being a blizzard but getting close in some cases.
01:04:48I-80 could be very rough indeed, especially thursday morning.
01:04:55I-70, parts of 34 and to the south is where the greatest potential for icing will exist.
01:05:00Snow breaking out tomorrow and we'll see that snow continuing to intensify into late tomorrow.
01:05:06Notice the area of pink that is growing here in the high resolution model.
01:05:10That is the area of sleet and freezing rain and there could be significant accumulations in northern arkansas, southern missouri.
01:05:17Then we'll see the snow also really intensifying with wind into early thursday and then the storm is slowly going to be weakening as it moves across and into the midwest.
01:05:27So not a lot of snow on the way for the midwest.
01:05:29We'll talk more about the totals coming up later in the show.
01:05:31Back to you.
01:05:34>> Thank you, carl.
01:05:36We're looking at the exclusive con at the weather channel, looking at the numbers.
01:05:41We have issued for denver, louis the bigger the number out of 10, the bigger the impacts expected.
01:05:47Snow in denver, 5 of 10.
01:05:48Kansas city, heavy snow, 6 of 10.
01:05:51Also, snow and sleet as well for st. louis.
01:05:54That is a 6 out of 10.
01:05:56Then looking now at the impacts for kansas city, with that 6 out con, for tomorrow night, heavy snow increasing later on, one to three inches with that low right around 22.
01:06:06Again, this for kansas city.
01:06:08Then on thursday, most of the heavy snow early in the day.
01:06:12By the afternoon, it will be more of the hit or miss snow showers but additional six to ten inches of snow for kansas city.
01:06:19Then for thursday night, snow showers eventually coming to an end.
01:06:23The snow total when it's all said and done, six to 12 inches.
01:06:26So a foot of snow, a possibility for kansas city and lows once AGAIN BACK DOWN INTO THE 20s.
01:06:34>> Major travel impacts.
01:06:36We'll be back next half hour with more on winter storm q and its impacts.
01:06:41>> Thank you, crystal.
01:06:42Coming up, we are talking about the severe side of winter storm q.
01:06:46>> Our severe weather expert dr.
01:06:48Greg forbes will tell us where we could see a tornado associated with our next major win tr storm.
01:08:32.
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01:08:39Coming up we look at the top five most bike-friendly cities and show you what they're doing to make biking safe for everyone on the street.
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01:10:52>>> Time for your weather countdown.
01:10:55We're looking at the top five most bike-friendly cities in the u.s.
01:10:58The cities had to have a population of 100,000 or more and must support a vibrant bike culture.
01:11:03Coming in at number five, chicago, with 170 miles of on-street bike paths plus a nearly 20 mile lakefront trail.
01:11:12Number four, according to bicycling.com, washington, d.c.
01:11:16It has 50 miles of bike paths.
01:11:18There are also buffered bike lanes on pennsylvania avenue connecting the white house to the capitol building.
01:11:24Boulder, colorado is number three, as they expand bike parking and encourage businesses to make cycling an attractive option for employees and customers.
01:11:32Number two, minneapolis.
01:11:34It has 92 miles of on-street bike ways and 85 miles of off-street trails.
01:11:40The number one bike friendly city, portland, oregon.
01:11:43They were the first city in the country to implement bike boxes in intersections to increase biker visibility.
01:11:49There are also elementary school bike commuting trains, a caravan of kids on bikes.
01:11:53That's your weather countdown.
01:11:56>> Well, in addition to the snowy side, there's a severe side to winter storm q that we're tracking.
01:12:03Our severe weather expert, dr.
01:12:05Forbes, shows us when and where the threat of tornadoes will become a concern.
01:12:08>> Once again we're going to see a severe weather threat roll across the gulf coast states as we've seen so many times this winter.
01:12:15This time, wednesday night, low pressure forms in southwest texas.
01:12:18The warm front doesn't get too far north into the state so the warm moist real unstable air stays south of the warm front.
01:12:25North, it's a cooler, drier east flow.
01:12:29That keeps the shallow cool layer there but low level jet just a few thousand feet above the ground may push warm air over top of the front and will offer hail as far north as southern parts of oklahoma.
01:12:40There will be a pretty strong jet stream disturbance within that as well.
01:12:43Most of its energy will be heading toward the cooler air and including that cold pocket aloft and it will begin to make a fringe hit on the unstable air on wednesday night.
01:12:54That's when the severe threat will begin, anywhere from around childress to san antonio and san angelo up into the dallas area.
01:13:01A low tornado threat down in the southern corner of this red-shaded area.
01:13:05As we head into thursday, the weather system continues to push east.
01:13:09A low, a little bit more toward the north and east.
01:13:11The cold front due east and the warm front does not move too far to the north so that means the warm moist air is limited in how big of an extent it covers.
01:13:22We may still get hail north of the warm front in the low level jet.
01:13:25The upper cold pocket begins to angle more toward the winter part of the system rather than charging east toward that real warm unstable air at the surface.
01:13:33It's not a situation in which everything is coming together for severe weather but with that warm front, with that low and the warm moist flow at low levels and the low level jet, we will have some severe weather, at least some tornado threat by thursday evening, the upper cold pocket continuing to move away from that richest moisture.
01:13:49Here's the outlook on thursday.
01:13:52Some spotty damaging winds, some hail and isolated tornadoes anywhere from the east parts of texas across louisiana into mississippi.
01:13:59I've given a tornado condition index of 3 along parts of mississippi and louisiana.
01:14:04About a 30% chance of a tornado.
01:14:05Stay safe.
01:14:05Back to you.
01:14:10>> Traveling is definitely difficult across the northeast right now because of the low clouds and rain coming in.
01:14:15Here's a live look at philadelphia, where it's currently 45 degrees but the important number I want to point out for you is two hours and 18.
01:14:25What is that?
01:14:26I'll show you what that is.
01:14:27That is actually the delay, 138 minute delay in philadelphia because of the weather and rain and clouds slowing things down.
01:14:36Up towards new york city, newark, talking almost a two-hour delay there, 112 minutes.
01:14:41even LaGuardia, we have a delay just over an hour.
01:14:44Jfk, about a half hour but still, the forecast is calling for this system to move out of the northeast.
01:14:49Then our attention focuses on winter storm q coming to the west.
01:14:53Denver, some snow could give you delays but severe weather could be popping up across south texas.
01:14:58Dallas you could see thunderstorms slowing you down as we head towards tomorrow.
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01:20:00>>> Welcome back.
01:20:00We're taking a live look right now at miami beach, florida, and minneapolis.
01:20:05In miami, it's been very warm but these temperatures could not be any different in minneapolis, they've seen single digit temperatures whereas in florida, we're starting to set records.
01:20:15How about that.
01:20:16It's really a tale of two temperatures.
01:20:18I'm sure the folks in minneapolis would like for florida to send a little bit of that weather right on up north.
01:20:24Let's talk about what's happening.
01:20:26Orlando, you could be looking at record heat this weekend, taking a look at your five-day forecast.
01:20:30You can see we're popping right UP INTO THE 80s AS OF THURSDAY And we're going to keep on going, flirting with 90 degrees on saturday.
01:20:38Sunday pulling back to 86 degrees but that's well above average for you, just even at 77.
01:20:44Let's talk about this.
01:20:44We could set some records here, orlando.
01:20:46Talking about a record of 88 degrees as a high and we're predicting 89 for you.
01:20:51And you could meet the record and daytona beach this weekend as well, your record, 86 degrees.
01:20:55As we head a little further south, you can see these records here, we might not make it but we'll be close in miami.
01:21:0189 Is the high.
01:21:02We're predicting 87 for you there.
01:21:04 myers, 88 is the high.
01:21:0785 Is what we're predicting.
01:21:08You may not set the record but you'll be close.
01:21:10Daytona beachheading to the daytona 500 this weekend, you'll be hot.
01:21:15Check this out.
01:21:1686 Degrees, mix of sun and clouds on saturday.
01:21:18Sunday, you'll pull back to 79 degrees.
01:21:21Very different story when we head up to minneapolis, where they should be about 28, 29 degrees this time of year.
01:21:28It's not happening.
01:21:28Seven degrees is where we're at right now.
01:21:31Boy, you know, it's one thing to be wintertime but that's a little ridiculous.
01:21:34We are going to start warming up slowly but surely.
01:21:37We're talking about wednesday, 16 degree high for you.
01:21:40As we head to thursday, push it up to 22 degrees.
01:21:43Chicago, you'll get up to 27.
01:21:45As we get into friday, hey, THERE WE GO IN THE 20s, Minneapolis.
01:21:4926 Degrees for you there on friday.
01:21:49Paul?
01:21:52>> It was warm yesterday here in st. louis, up around 60.
01:21:55Now we have sunshine but only 32 behind that front.
01:21:59That is setting the stage for potentially a little wintry mess here in st. louis.
01:22:04We should be around 46 this time of year.
01:22:05We are, believe it or not, running below average in terms of snowfall so far this season, only about seven inches.
01:22:11We should be twice that for this time of year.
01:22:13But the wintry side of winter storm q is coming your way.
01:22:17Let's talk about what this means.
01:22:18Take a look at this.
01:22:19Looks like perhaps the backdrop for your holiday card.
01:22:21This is actually what happens when you have snow.
01:22:23Cold air throughout the column of the atmosphere, everything stays as snow.
01:22:27But the problem here in st.
01:22:29Louis is eventually, with q coming on in, the cold air starts to get wedged out by a warmer sliver of air aloft.
01:22:38When that happens, snow falls in that, then melts to liquid rain and then with the cold air below that, it refreezes and then you have sleet, ice pellets bouncing on the ground.
01:22:50That's like snow.
01:22:50You can deal with that.
01:22:51The problem is when the cold air gets thicker or warm air gets thicker, you have less time for that rain drop to refreeze so it does but things at the surface will be below freezing so the rain freezes on the roads, power lines.
01:23:06That causes a big mess.
01:23:07We could see that on your thursday here in st. louis.
01:23:12>> The weather channel's newest show "reef wranglers," they are back tonight with an all new episode and we've got a sneak peek for you.
01:23:23>> The day-to-day trips out there is when it can change so fast.
01:23:28Sometimes the weather's just rain and wind, sometimes it's got a lot of fire in it.
01:23:31We don't like the fire, man.
01:23:35We got to move.
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01:23:45>> It's rocking like crazy, the wind's blowing.
01:23:48The weather conditions are dangerous.
01:23:49Somebody's going to get hurt.
01:23:50>> By law, our reefs have to be deployed in specific coordinates designated by the state.
01:23:56They have to be deployed in exactly the right spot right next to each other, sitting upright so they offer the most surface area to promote marine life attachment.
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01:29:07>>> half past the hour.
01:29:09Take a look at this.
01:29:09The national weather service in sacramento tweeted out this picture of a possible tornado in northern california.
01:29:17It appears in the picture that this funnel is reaching all the way to the ground so indeed, that would qualify as a tornado.
01:29:24This is just east of the 5, between corning and red bluff.
01:29:28We've got a dynamic storm coming in, a cold pacific storm, lot of instability aloft.
01:29:34That is winter storm q.
01:29:35It will be a big storm for a good part of the country.
01:29:38Thanks for joining us on this half hour of "weather center " I'm crystal egger.
01:29:43Chris warren is with carl parker.
01:29:44They're in the global forecast center.
01:29:46We'll hear from both of them in just a moment with more in-depth coverage of winter storm q.
01:29:51But first, let's check in on the rain across the east coast.
01:29:54We go to boston right now.
01:29:5740 Degrees and rainy.
01:29:59Rain coming down on some of those snow piles we've got out there still left over from back-to-back snowstorms.
01:30:04Of course, we had nemo and then the big snow that came over the weekend on top of that.
01:30:10Not as big as nemo but it has been busy the last couple weeks.
01:30:14We are expecting delays in the northeast because of the low clouds and the wind that's out there tonight.
01:30:19Let's go to boston and show you where the rain is.
01:30:22No delays at the boston airport but definitely down to LaGUARDIA, JFK AND PHILLY, Experiencing some delays tonight.
01:30:28You can see that the air is mild enough for all rain in these areas.
01:30:33No snow here.
01:30:34You have to go up into the higher elevations to see some of the snow.
01:30:37That's where it looks white here on the radar, across the add adirondacks.
01:30:45Elsewhere, all the way down the i-95 corridor into new york city, across new jersey, it's all rain for you.
01:30:54Washington, d.c. dry for now.
01:30:56A few drops possible tonight and lake effect snow from the ohio valley into the interior northeast.
01:31:00We have more lake effect and that's what we'll see tomorrow.
01:31:04It dries out across the coast and all the way up into boston but temperatures cool back off so more of those layers tomorrow as temperatures stay just above freezing in places like new york city.
01:31:16Boston, once you get rid of the rain, there will be a chance of snow by the weekend.
01:31:20Let's see how this all plays out with carl and chris, in-depth analysis now on winter storm q.
01:31:26>> While there will be some big impacts with winter storm q, there will also be positive sides to this storm.
01:31:33One of those will be the snow that's expected in the mountains, for the ski resorts, also for the summer's water supply and also looking at making a dent in the drought.
01:31:41>> Yeah.
01:31:42It will help out, certainly, with the drought in parts of the plains.
01:31:44It will be a lot of moisture coming in.
01:31:46That's what's interesting about this storm, it's not an incredibly strong area of surface low pressure that we're looking at in the plains but what we will see is a lot of moisture from the gulf of mexico and more than enough cold air to support not only snow, but freezing rain.
01:32:00Let's take a look at how this will play out.
01:32:02That freezing rain is going to be a big part of the concerns here.
01:32:05There could be significant freezing rain in parts of arkansas and missouri.
01:32:09This is how this is going to happen.
01:32:11We'll watch that cold air dropping down from the lakes and that's 32 degrees or less there, indicated in blue, so this huge sprawling area of high pressure is a big part of what is going to drive this weather and then you've got the gulf of mexico opening up, and warm, moist air coming up and over top of the cold air that's already in place, and that means that rain will be falling down into the cold air and freezing on contact.
01:32:38So at this point, we think that serious icing impacts are likely south of 44 in missouri and generally north of 30, but you've got a larger area of possible serious impacts and in this area, we could be talking about potentially half an inch of ice accumulation.
01:32:57That is enough ice to drop tree limbs and power lines so now is really the time to start thinking about what you might need to do if you are without power for a prolonged period of time.
01:33:07But that could also affect areas farther west, along 44 in oklahoma and certainly a large area of potential impacts on the roads.
01:33:15That's going to be another serious concern here.
01:33:17>> It's a very dangerous situation with the ice.
01:33:20It's also the snow, could be in some places more than a foot of snow.
01:33:23>> Yeah, maybe even well more than a foot of snow in some cases.
01:33:26Here's a look at the snow totals through friday.
01:33:29You have a huge area of snowfall here from iowa back through the central plains.
01:33:336 To 12 we think in des moines and kansas city, then 12 to 18 right across 80 in nebraska and down just north of 70 there in northern kansas.
01:33:43But there could be more than that in spots.
01:33:45There could be over 20 inches in spots.
01:33:47Here's a look at the timing of that.
01:33:49We're going to see this initial area of lighter snow coming out during the day tomorrow and then later tomorrow, that low pressure's going to be getting a little stronger and so by thursday morning, we're going to see some fairly strong, fairly high snowfall rates and the snow really coming down with a lot of strong wind, too, on top of that.
01:34:08Then here you see the area of freezing rain that we talked about, again along 44 and north of 30.
01:34:15So that's going to be thursday morning.
01:34:17Then into mid-morning, winds really start kicking in here.
01:34:20Probably out of the east at about 20 to 30 miles per hour, gusting a little bit higher.
01:34:25Not rising to the level of a blizzard but we could see near blizzard conditions in these areas.
01:34:30And then as the low works farther eastward, the entire thing is going to begin to expand and sort of shear out.
01:34:39It will lose a lot of its punch.
01:34:41The low pressure will be weakening so we see a little snow coming up into chicago and some lingering concerns about freezing rain in the ohio valley.
01:34:48But this is what I want to show you about the drought.
01:34:50>> It's one of the other benefits of this storm.
01:34:52>> Yes.
01:34:52Absolutely.
01:34:55Right in here in red, you see what we need to end the drought in terms of liquid precipitation.
01:35:02We need between three and six inches across much of nebraska and kansas, little bit less in southwest kansas, little bit more than that in eastern parts of those states.
01:35:12The liquid equivalent that we will get in these areas is probably going to be between an inch and an inch and a half.
01:35:18So that's not going to be enough to end the drought but it will be enough to put a big dent in the drought and anything at this point is good news.
01:35:26>> So we have that good news but we still have potentially major impacts when it comes to travel and possibly power outages on the icy side of things.
01:35:33>> Major travel impacts.
01:35:34We'll also see a lot of severe weather with this system.
01:35:37>> Let's go back to crystal.
01:35:40>> Just because hurricane season is over doesn't mean the hurricane hunters' planes aren't flying.
01:35:44In fact, they are in the air right now tracking extreme winter weather all across the country, thousands of feet above the ground.
01:35:52METEOROLOGIST maria LaRosa has more.
01:35:54>> Hurricane hunters, aircrafts that fly into the eye of tropical cyclones to gather the most up-to-date weather data.
01:36:02But did you know during the winter months this mission is a little different.
01:36:06The noaa plane is tracking extreme winter weather events across the country.
01:36:10>> What we're doing is dropping on this particular mission, 19 dropsondes.
01:36:15What those are, they are like weather balloons but instead of going up from the ground, they're dropping from the aircraft down to the surface of the water and we are collecting air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction.
01:36:26We're feeding all that information into the models so that three to five, even seven-day forecasts have a little bit more information to deal with.
01:36:35>> The aircraft has flown seven missions in the past nine days, tracking storms as they form off the coast of alaska and head towards the continental u.s.
01:36:47>> The forecast for this system out of anchorage earlier in the week, late last week, thursday and friday, we've been flying numerous different patterns to kind of get information on the storm that's going up the east coast now, the storm that's about to develop in the southern plains, and the system that's gone into alaska recently.
01:37:06This is just a continuing series of those flights.
01:37:08>> One of the biggest differences between hunting hurricanes and winter storms, for the colder events, they fly around the storms rather than directly into them.
01:37:16But the results are the same, getting the latest data to help meteorologists better track storms.
01:37:22METEOROLOGIST maria LaRosa, the weather channel.
01:37:24>> Crystal and I will be back at the top of the hour with the latest on winter storm q and its impacts.
01:37:30>> Let's find out what's next with paul and kyla.
01:37:33>> Up next, the possible severe side of winter storm q, including potential hailstorms.
01:37:38>> Our severe weather expert, greg forbes, breaks down the so-called hail alley and why it could be a major factor during winter storm q.
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01:43:18>>> We've been talking about severe winter storm q but another side of this system is going to be the severe weather side of it.
01:43:24>> Yes, it is.
01:43:24Along with the dangerous wind and tornadoes, our severe forbes explains where hail could cause big problems.
01:43:32>> It may only be february but when the conditions are right we can still get quite a bit of hail, sometimes bigger than golf ball size.
01:43:39That looks like it will occur with this upcoming storm system.
01:43:43Here we'll have a warm front that will be moving pretty slowly away from the gulf of mexico toward the north.
01:43:47There will be an entrenched flow of east cold air north of that that will provide a surface over which we could push some of the warm moist air aloft as a low level jet pushes a few thousand feet above the ground, pushes that moisture up over top of the cold layer.
01:44:03That will give what we call elevated thunderstorms.
01:44:05They don't typically have a whole lot in the way of tornado or damaging wind threat, but they could be some pretty prolific hail producers.
01:44:12That could run across northern parts of texas into northern parts of louisiana.
01:44:16The jet stream will be also involved here.
01:44:18It will provide some of the cold air aloft as that upper cold pocket comes eastbound, especially overnight wednesday night as we have in the red-shaded areas here that threat for hail that will include overnight into the dallas area, into southern parts of oklahoma as well as much of texas.
01:44:34The farther south you go, the chances of damaging winds and even a chance of a tornado goes up a little bit as we get into the richer, deeper surface-based warm air.
01:44:43As we head into thursday morning, then, still the same kind of situation.
01:44:47The warm front only moving a little bit inland so the real warm surface-based air that would have a bigger hail and wind threat will be limited to southeast texas.
01:44:57North of that again will naush warm air aloft over top of a cold flow so there could be some and into northern parts of louisiana with the system.
01:45:07Looks as if the upper cold pocket will begin to angle its way north and east instead of charging directly east over the warm moist air.
01:45:18Thursday, then, hail, especially in the northern halff thred shaded region.
01:45:19The farther south you get, a little more chance of damage, winds, and a chance tornado.
01:45:23Probably got a chance of tornado best in the central parts of louisiana over into the central parts of mississippi.
01:45:29Stay safe.
01:45:30The severe weather threat will continue across the gulf coast states on friday and saturday.
01:45:36Later into the season, hail alley typically is in the high plains areas from east of the rockies to the canadian border down into the texas panhandle areas just a little bit to the east.
01:45:48Back to you.
01:45:49>> Hail can cause extension damage to property.
01:45:54Tomorrow, jim cantore is live at the insurance institute for business and hope safety research center.
01:46:00Just rolls off the tongue there.
01:46:04First time ever indoor hailstorm test.
01:46:08Ibhs engineers have been working for years to develop this test that will lead to better understanding of the real-world effects of hailstorms.
01:46:1530 a.m. eastern.
01:46:19>> All right, it is now time for ask the weather channel.
01:46:22Today, we're fielding your questions about our new winter storm q and the expected blizzard conditions.
01:46:29This hour's question is for mr. goodloe.
01:46:31It comes from our facebook page.
01:46:34My son-in-law is going to be driving a semitruck heading for california.
01:46:38If he goes the southern route, will q be hindering his driving?
01:46:43Paul?
01:46:44>> Great question.
01:46:44I'm going to talk about this for a couple of different aspects.
01:46:49One is to experience.
01:46:51I have done this and have chosen the wrong route.
01:46:54I've taken interstate 40 versus interstate 10.
01:46:57Here's the key.
01:46:59Interstate 40 at flagstaff nearly 7,000 feet.
01:47:01You head out towards albuquerque about 5,000 feet.
01:47:06The road typically stays above 5,000 feet for this entire stretch across areas of arizona, into new mexico.
01:47:13That gi gives you a better chance at seeing snow.
01:47:17The southern route, interstate 10, it might look longer on the map.
01:47:25But look at the elevation difference, el paso, just under 4,000 feet.
01:47:29The road does get over 4,000 but not the entire way.
01:47:32Even just to the east of tucson, it gets around 5,000 feet.
01:47:36Then tucson down to 2800.
01:47:39It is generally a much lower elevation roadway in term, of the entire distance.
01:47:43Meaning a better chance of seeing maybe a rain storm mixture but also a lot more rain versus purely all snow here.
01:47:49Interstate 40.
01:47:50So that will definitely slow you down.
01:47:52Yet driving 15 miles per hour through snow, if you can go that fast, versus maybe 50 and rain across the southern route.
01:48:00Can definitely short be your distance.
01:48:02Haip, keep sending those questions in.
01:48:05You can send them on our facebook page or twitter.
01:48:11>> There's no rest from the winter storms this week.
01:48:14Up next, our storm specialist breaks down the timing of winter storm q.
01:48:18That will be straight ahead in your winter weather update and we've got a lot to talk about, folks, because we've got snow, we've got rain, all kinds of weather heading for the midwest and towards the east.
01:53:53>>> It is time now for the winter weather update.
01:53:56Major storm is on the way to the plains.
01:53:58Very heavy snow, could be a foot and a half or more in some spots.
01:54:02We could see significant icing on top of that.
01:54:04We'll take a look at where the areas of concern are in a moment.
01:54:08Let's first of all focus in on where this storm is going to be taking shape in the next couple of days here.
01:54:13Snow and ice will be the major concerns across parts of the plains and the midwest.
01:54:18The storm is actually going to be weakening as it moves into the plains.
01:54:24Kansas city tomorrow night, heavy snow coming in.
01:54:27Probably a few inches.
01:54:28Going to be quite cold.
01:54:29There's going to be an abundance of low-level cold air.
01:54:32Then during the day on thursday, heavy snow coming in in the morning.
01:54:35And then it will be tapering off to snow showers later in the day.
01:54:41An additional 6 to 10 on the way.
01:54:43Total of 10 to 15 there in kansas city.
01:54:46Again, it will continue to be quite cold.
01:54:48That snow is not going to be quick to go away.
01:54:52Here's the players.
01:54:53Arctic high pressure building down from canada, bringing a lot of cold air into the central plains.
01:55:00Tremendous amount of moisture moving into from the gulf of mexico.
01:55:06This area of low pressure is actually not going to be terribly strong but we'll have plenty of moisture and plenty cold and that is enough to produce a widespread snow event and a huge travel mess along interstates 80, 70, 35, 44, south of 44, that's where there could be significant icing.
01:55:26Farther along towards the east.
01:55:29Here's a look at the timing.
01:55:31Low pressure developing in the lee of the rockies early tomorrow so snow is going to be breaking out tomorrow.
01:55:38Lighter snow initially in kansas and nebraska.
01:55:41Late in the day tomorrow and early thursday morning, we're going to begin to see this area of freezing rain, sleet and freezing rain, indicated by the pink there.
01:55:52The snow increases in intensity, but it's really going to be peaking on thursday morning.
01:55:57We'll see strong east winds coming in to parts of kansas and nebraska.
01:56:01Probably 20 to 30 miles per hour.
01:56:03Gusting a little bit higher than that.
01:56:05Again, you've got this large area of potential freezing rain.
01:56:08There could be accumulations in parts of northern arkansas, southern missouri, of half an inch.
01:56:14That is enough to cause power outages and drop some tree limbs.
01:56:18So get ready for the possibility of some power outages there.
01:56:21And then we'll see very heavy snowfall rates across parts of kansas and southern nebraska tomorrow morning.
01:56:27That will continue into the early afternoon.
01:56:29That snow then reaching over into the mississippi valley and st. louis.
01:56:34We're still seeing that area of freezing rain there.
01:56:37And then the entire storm is going to begin to really expand out and weaken as it moves across and into the midwest.
01:56:47So there's a look at the snow totals.
01:56:48Talking about 12 to 18 inches of snow in southern nebraska and much of kansas and a very large area of 6 to 12.
01:56:55We'll talk more about where the worst of the icing is going to be in 15 minutes.
01:57:01Back to you.
01:57:02>> After winter comes -- >> baseball uniforms!
01:57:05>> Spring training.
01:57:06Q will be affecting the phoenix games.
01:57:10Some rain showers, kind of cool.
01:57:12After that, things warm up.
01:57:13It will be a lot warmer out towards florida.
01:57:15>> The sunshine state is really going to be setting possible records.
01:57:20If you're in tampa, you're going to feel that heat.
01:57:2377 On wednesday.
01:57:23LOOK AT THAT, MEASURE IN THE 80s On thursday and friday.
01:57:26Partly cloudy skies.
01:57:28Bring your water.
01:57:29>> Even warmer in ft. myers.
01:57:32PUSHING THE 80s TOWARDS THE END Of the week.
01:57:34>> Stay with us.
01:57:37"Weather center live" continues next.
01:57:39>> Chris and crystal bring you the latest on winter storm q.
01:57:44And a possibly wintry weekend for new england.
01:57:49They'll also answer your winter storm q questions.
01:57:52Send them in to us on facebook and twitter.
01:57:55>> Plus, we will break down today's best weather video.
01:59:07>>> Here's what you need to know about winter storm q.
01:59:10It is a triple threat.
01:59:15>> Winter storm q covers a lot of real estate and it's expected to bring massive impacts to travel in the days ahead.
01:59:23We're keeping you ahead of the storm with expert analysis only the weather channel can bring you.
01:59:29>> From the weather channel headquarters, you're watching " good tuesday evening, I'm crystal egger.
01:59:37>> I'm chris warren.
01:59:39We have expert analysis of the many personalities of weather storm q.
01:59:43First, let's get a quick look at the radar and show you where there is snow falling.
01:59:49Possibly causing disruptions to parts of the midwest and throughout parts of the east.
01:59:53In michigan, we're seeing more snow tonight.
01:59:56There's been a bit a messy day.
01:59:58Blizzard warnings for the u.p.
02:00:01Lower michigan looking at winter weather advisories.
02:00:04The radar is snowing snow coming down over the u.p.
02:00:07You can see traverse city here, mackinac city, still in the snow at this time.
02:00:12That's where you have the winter storm warnings in effect.
02:00:14Grand rapids still in the snow.
02:00:17Saginaw.
02:00:17Over to detroit.
02:00:18Few flurries flying around.
02:00:20Here in indianapolis, you're seeing some snow.
02:00:22Also heading a little bit farther to the eat on 70, north of cincinnati.
02:00:28In cincinnati, seeing snow right now.
02:00:29Area of low pressure.
02:00:30This is moving out.
02:00:31Some snow right now in buffalo.
02:00:33And parts of northern new england.
02:00:35Overnight tonight and tomorrow, we're going to start to see this taper off.
02:00:39So we're still going to have a few of those lake-effect snow showers going on right on through tomorrow.
02:00:44But not as wide spread a situation as what's happening out there right now.
02:00:47For detroit, we're going to look at snow showers ending tonight.
02:00:51And it's going to stay cold through thursday.
02:00:53Getting back above freezing by friday.
02:00:55Crystal.
02:00:55>> A winter storm q is already impacting california tonight.
02:00:59We want to take you there live right now.
02:01:01We'll go to truckee, california.
02:01:03You can see the snow is coming down.
02:01:05TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20s Right now.
02:01:08Expecting some strong winds across the mountains and the deserts.
02:01:13Of course that lower elevations, we're dealing with rain and thunderstorms.
02:01:16Let's go to carl parker and get some analysis on winter storm q.
02:01:21We're just getting started as this storm swings into the west tonight.
02:01:28>> Tomorrow night and thursday morning are the critical timings in the plains.
02:01:33We'll see significant icing in some areas.
02:01:37Power outages will be a real possibility.
02:01:42Let's take a look at how that is going to play out.
02:01:46You've got this huge area of very cold air.
02:01:48Arctic high building down through the legs and then driving down into the central plains and then as the storm comes out, what it's going to do is grab warm and moist air and bring it out over top of that very cold air.
02:02:01Now, in some cases, that's going to lead to rain falling into the cold air and freezing on contact and freezing rain will be the result.
02:02:09At this point, we think it is likely we will see significant icing across parts of southern mississippi and also into northern arkansas and then it is possible it extends a good bit farther south down into little rock, farther west, across 44 into tulsa.
02:02:30In this area in particular, south of 44, north of 30, i would be getting ready for possible -- for possibly losing power as we could see tree branches and power lines coming down and maybe a half an inch of ice accumulation.
02:02:46In addition to that, we'll see very heavy snow.
02:02:49Large area of 12 to 18 inches of snow along 80.
02:02:52And also along 70 and central and western parts of kansas and nebraska.
02:02:57And then a very large area of 6 to 12.
02:03:01And that going over into kansas city and reaching up into southern parts of iowa.
02:03:053 To 6 farther northward.
02:03:06We're not going to see much snow getting over into the lakes, say, around chicago, because the storm is going to weaken rather dramatically as it moves in.
02:03:17Let's look at the model.
02:03:18Show us how this is going to play out.
02:03:21Going into very late tomorrow, overnight tomorrow.
02:03:22That snow is going to be picking up in intensity.
02:03:24You see the area of freezing rain in northern oklahoma.
02:03:28Not only is it going to be freezing rain, there could be some thunder coming in.
02:03:33It could be heavy freezing rain from time to time.
02:03:35You may get freezing rain with lightning and thunder.
02:03:38So very heavy rainfall rates are entirely possible.
02:03:42It's really going to be taking place thursday morning in southern missouri and also northern arkansas.
02:03:47Strong winds from the east here.
02:03:49About 30 miles per hour.
02:03:50Maybe a little bit stronger.
02:03:51We'll see very heavy snowfall rates across parts of kansas through thursday morning.
02:03:56Then it will be winding down into the afternoon.
02:03:58Snow moving over into the mississippi valley.
02:04:01The entire storm is going to be expanding and weakening as it moves up into the midwest.
02:04:06It's not going to be nearly the same storm for chicago and places around the lakes.
02:04:11Guys, back to you.
02:04:12>> I'll pick it up from here and talk about more specific timing across the southwest.
02:04:17Some of the snow we're expecting in places like flagstaff, arizona, right now, not too bad.
02:04:2440 Degrees, partly cloudy.
02:04:27Breezy.
02:04:27We'll add to the peaks, no doubt about that.
02:04:32We could see as much as a foot of snow.
02:04:36Flagstaff, we're talking significant impacts from this storm.
02:04:39Especially when it comes to travel.
02:04:42Steady snow developing overnight tonight.
02:04:43A couple inches on the ground now.
02:04:45By tomorrow, 6 to 10 additional inches of snow.
02:04:48So that's where we approach the foot by tomorrow night.
02:04:52It's going to stay cold.
02:04:54The wind is going to be blowing occasionally.
02:04:55By tomorrow night, still snowing in the flagstaff area.
02:04:58And, chris with this storm, we're looking at several types of precipitation, right?
02:05:02The.
02:05:02>> That's exactly right, crystal.
02:05:04This is what we're looking at right now.
02:05:06, rain starts as snow and cold air aloft.
02:05:10It melts.
02:05:11So you get rain at the surface.
02:05:13If you have a shallow layer of warm air and then colder air underneath it, yeah, that snow does melt.
02:05:21As it comes down here it doesn't have time to refreeze, but it does freeze on contact.
02:05:27And that is freezing rain.
02:05:28So if you have surfaces that are below the freezing mark, and supercold water coming down, it will freeze.
02:05:34If that cold air is deep enough, that liquid precipitation will refreeze.
02:05:40Again, it melts coming through the warm layer, refreezes, and then companies down and you get the balancing and the sleet.
02:05:47That's the sleet.
02:05:47You have the melted snow.
02:05:49Does refreeze.
02:05:50If it's cold all the way through, you have straight snow.
02:05:52So with that in mind, some of the areas that we'll have the biggest chance, as carl was just talking about, of seeing frozen precipitation, northern as arkansas, southern missouri.
02:06:05 louis, snow or sleet and a 6 out of 10.
02:06:07>> This is hitting right in the middle of the workweek.
02:06:12We're expecting significant impacts when it comes to travel.
02:06:15Let's take you to branson, missouri.
02:06:18He'll take a live look at branson, missouri.
02:06:21That's one place we could see ice and dicey driving conditions here over the next couple of days.
02:06:26Winter storm watch remains in effect from wednesday evening through thursday afternoon.
02:06:31So we have a ways to go.
02:06:33We're looking at snow and sleet accumulations.
02:06:36And we could see anywhere from a dusting to 4 inches.
02:06:39Chris was talking about the impacts from the ice.
02:06:41We wanted to show you on weather.com.
02:06:43You can look at our driving difficulty index and get a good idea of where we're expecting some of of that ice especially in missouri.
02:06:51All right.
02:06:51Coming up, we'll talk more about the storm in depth analysis and we'll be answering your questions.
02:06:56In.
02:10:50>>> It's time for your weather countdown.
02:10:52We're looking at the top five most bike friendly cities in the u.s.
02:10:56The cities had to have a population of 100,000 or more and most support a vibrant bike culture.
02:11:02Coming in at number five, chicago, with 170 miles of bike paths plus a nearly 20-mile lake-front trail.
02:11:13Number four, washington, d.c.
02:11:14It has 50 miles bike paths.
02:11:17There are also buffered byplanes connecting the white house to the capital building.
02:11:27Colorado, boulder, making cycling an attraction option.
02:11:32Number two, minneapolis.
02:11:3392 Miles of on-street bikeways and 83 miles of off-street trails.
02:11:40The number one bike-friendly city, portland, oregon.
02:11:44They were the first to have a caravan of kids on bikes.
02:11:53That's your weather countdown.
02:11:56>> Winter storm q could bring more severe weather for mississippi for what will be at least the third time since christmas.
02:12:03Our severe weather expert greg forbes tells us when and where the threat of tornadoes will be of concern this week.
02:12:10>> We're going to see a severe weather threat roll across the gulf coast states.
02:12:16Wednesday night, a low pressure form in southeast texas.
02:12:22The warm unstable air stays south of the warm front north.
02:12:26It's a color dryer east flow.
02:12:29That will keep a shallow cool layer there.
02:12:31Low level jet, just a few thousand feet above the ground, may push that warm air on top of the front.
02:12:40They'll be a pretty strong jet stream.
02:12:42A disturbance within that as well.
02:12:45Most of its energy will head towards the cooler air.
02:12:48It will begin to make a fringe hit on the unstable air on wednesday night.
02:12:54So that's when the severe threat will begin anywhere from around childress to san antonio and san angelo up into the dallas area.
02:13:06So we head into thursday.
02:13:08The weather system continues to push east.
02:13:09The low, a little bit more towards the north and east.
02:13:12The cold front due east.
02:13:13The warm front does not move too far to the north.
02:13:17The warm moist air is limited in how big of an extended cover.
02:13:24The upper cold pocket begins to angle its way more towards the winter part of the system rather than charging east toward that real warm unstable air at the surface.
02:13:33It's not a situation in which everything is coming together for severe weather but with that warm front, with that low, and the warm moist flow of low levels, we will have some severe weather and at least some tornado threat by thursday evening.
02:13:46The upper cold pocket continuing to move away from that richest moisture.
02:13:51Here's the outlook then on thursday.
02:13:53Some spotty damage winds, some hail, and isolated tornadoes anywhere from the east parts texas, louisiana, mississippi.
02:14:02A condition tornado index of 3.
02:14:04About a 30% chance of a tornado.
02:14:07Stay safe.
02:14:07Back to you.
02:14:08>> All right, thanks for the heads up, dr. forbes.
02:14:11We are getting your questions about winter storm q.
02:14:14We'll have the answers straight ahead.
02:14:16And get your umbrella and your rain boots.
02:14:19If you live in the south.
02:14:21These storms could dump up to 10 inches of rain over the next ten days.
02:14:27And while it's an amazing turnaround of temperatures from frigid in florida to record warmth, we're going to show you just how hot it will get other the weekend.
02:14:37Brand-new numbers in from our global forecast center.
02:14:42New numbers are going up based on more anticipated snowfall.
02:14:47Here's your timing.
02:14:48Tomorrow night, heavy snow, a storm con as high as 7.
02:14:54Big impacts to travel.
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02:19:56>>> It's 20 past the hour.
02:19:58Time to ask the weather channel.
02:20:00We started out with a questiontheresa.
02:20:03She says, southeast kansas, rain or snow.
02:20:05Hearing different forecats for the area.
02:20:08We're going to focus on southeast kansas and some of the impacts from wenter storm q.
02:20:13All across kansas, you're going to be feeling the impacts, whether it be snow or freezing rain or more of a mix.
02:20:24You can see kansas under a winter storm warning.
02:20:27There's a few areas espec lip here in extreme southeast kansas under a winter weather advisory.
02:20:33Regardless, we're looking at some type of winter weather here.
02:20:36Most of the heavy snow is going to fall from, say, goodland, kansas, over to concordia, right along i-70.
02:20:44Over a foot possible by the time we get into thursday.
02:20:47The snow starts tomorrow.
02:20:48Continues on thursday.
02:20:50And then 6 to 12 inches here.
02:20:51You get into extreme southeast kansas and lighter amounts.
02:20:55But pay attention to the forecasts for ice because that's where things get very dangerous on the road.
02:21:01We could have rain falling into supercold air.
02:21:04Freezing air at the surface.
02:21:05Chris, that gets very dangerous if you're doing any traveling.
02:21:08Could even lead to downed trees and some power outages.
02:21:13>> Right now, we're looking at what will be the wet side of things.
02:21:16This is live at new orleans on the left.
02:21:19Memphis at sunset there.
02:21:20Atlanta, traffic moving along for you right now.
02:21:24Rain will be moving in pretty soon for a soggy south before you know it.
02:21:30With that, some of it will likely be welcome.
02:21:33Updating you on the drought and the latest 82% of georgia here in drought.
02:21:41Exceptional drought still at zero.
02:21:42So there has been improvements with some of that rain.
02:21:45But still quite a bit of red on here and that is going to change as far as at least putting a dent in the drought for georgia.
02:21:52We're going to see some of the drought areas here in the southern plains.
02:21:55You get some help.
02:21:56It's going to be in the form of snow.
02:21:58Possibly a messy situation as q moves through.
02:22:00There's that severe threat throughout parts of eastern texas, into louisiana, mississippi, on thursday.
02:22:07And then here comes the rain.
02:22:09And here comes the rain in a big way.
02:22:11This is the five-day forecast.
02:22:13Once that rain gets going, you're going to have a lot of that moisture coming up from the south in some cases.
02:22:18You're going to see more than 5 inches of rain.
02:22:23Now, there have been some pretty water-logged parts of south georgia but the rain will put a dent in that drought.
02:22:30Here's a look at atlanta over the next five days, how it plays out here.
02:22:34Dry through thursday.
02:22:36Increasing rain on friday and saturday.
02:22:38With that will come some milder air.
02:22:41Crystal.
02:22:41>> You're going to escape much of the winter weather associated with q if you're down in florida.
02:22:47Especially miami.
02:22:47Big temperature turnaround in miami.
02:22:50After some of the coldest air of the year moved through over the weekend.
02:22:53We're at 73 right now.
02:22:55In fact, by the weekend, we'll be approaching record highs across parts of florida.
02:23:00So temperatures are rebounding.
02:23:01This is where we were last weekend.
02:23:03Remember the concern for citrus crops and all the farmers out here.
02:23:07You've got a little frost when you woke up in the morning.
02:23:1040s.
02:23:10These are highs.
02:23:11The overnight lows were in the 20s AND 30s.
02:23:1440s FOR THE HIGHS LAST WEEKEND Across southern georgia, northern florida, and even into miami.
02:23:19WE ONLY MADE IT INTO THE 50s.
02:23:21For florida standards, that's chilly.
02:23:2370 Groups in orlando.
02:23:2670 Degrees in orlando.
02:23:2873 In miami.
02:23:2968, Tampa.
02:23:30Gets warmer.
02:23:31Tomorrow, approaching 80 in ORLANDO, 80s FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
02:23:35Thursday remains toasty here.
02:23:37On friday, into saturday and sunday, record highs possible.
02:23:41Look how warm the temperatures going in miami.
02:23:44By sunday, near 90.
02:23:45If you're heading to daytona for the 500 of course over the weekend, plan on temperatures in THE 70s, IF NOT LOW 80s.
02:23:55It's going to stay warm all across the sunshine state.
02:23:58That's one place to go and escape the wrath of q.
02:24:02>> Still ahead on the rundown, in depth on all things q.
02:24:06We're tracking the snowy, the icy and the severe sides to this winter storm.
02:24:11Plus, we're going to show you the difference between ice and sleet and the damaging impacts both.
02:24:17Plus, why winter storm q is calving the attention of hurricane center.
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02:29:08>>> Winter storm q is already creeping into california.
02:29:11These are iwitness pictures of snowflaks flying in eureka in the northern part of the state.
02:29:20Winter storm q's legacy may be the icy side.
02:29:22Some places could see up to an inch of ice before it's all said and done.
02:29:27That's where it gets real dangerous.
02:29:30I'm crystal egger.
02:29:327:30 Eastern, 6:30 central.
02:29:34We're going in depth on winter storm q.
02:29:37First, we want to update you on snow and rain across the northeast and the midwest tonight.
02:29:43This is not q, this is a different storm we're tracking.
02:29:47Albany, new york, reporting some rain right now.
02:29:49May mix over to some snow as we head into the overnight.
02:29:52We're not looking at as much accumulation here.
02:29:57You have to go west to see snowfall.
02:29:59Otherwise, it's all rain.
02:30:00In fact, rain showers into boston.
02:30:03More moderate and heavy rain coming in around long island, the cape.
02:30:08New york city, a soggy afternoon and evening.
02:30:11Still in and out of the rain showers here, all across long island, southern connecticut, it's all rain into hartford.
02:30:17That means temperatures are STAYING UP INTO THE 40s.
02:30:20So no snow this time around.
02:30:22Higher elevations of upstate new york and across new england looking at minor snow accumulation.
02:30:27And coming the lakes, scattered light snow.
02:30:30That's really what we're going to see once this moves out.
02:30:32A quick moving.
02:30:33So late tonight, we're pretty much done with the moisture across the big cities.
02:30:37Then we have streamers of snow coming in throughout the day tomorrow.
02:30:41Just east of the lakes.
02:30:42New york city, dry tomorrow.
02:30:43Just cooling off.
02:30:44More winter weather for the weekend.
02:30:46Let's go in depth now with chris and carl and talk about this big winter storm q tracking across the country.
02:30:53>> We'll start off right now with the question from facebook.
02:30:56The question is this, can you give me any information on southwest to missouri.
02:31:03I think we can give you a lot of information on southwest missouri.
02:31:06>> We really can.
02:31:06We're going to be starting out with a mixture of precipitation.
02:31:10Most likely, it's going to be snow and sleet and freezing rain.
02:31:14Probably accumulation of an inch or snow.
02:31:18Then transitioning to freezing rain.
02:31:21So it's going to be messy.
02:31:23That's the bottom line.
02:31:24>> Freezing rain is what grabs on to tree branches and power lines and can cause big problems.
02:31:31>> It really can.
02:31:31There's going to be huge areas of concern for travel.
02:31:33Then you've got this area of concern here in southern missouri where we could see between a quarter and a half an inch of ice accumulation.
02:31:41That is enough to drop branches and power lines.
02:31:44So if you live in these areas south of 44 and north of 30, now's really the time to start thinking about what you would want to have in place.
02:31:54Were you to be without power for an extended period of time.
02:31:58We could see power outages, more scattered power outages farther westward.
02:32:03Back towards 35 and even perhaps down into little rock or as far east as cape girardeau and along 55.
02:32:10>> So the other aspect is the heavy snow.
02:32:13There's going to be a ton of snow in some cases.
02:32:16>> Tremendous amount of snow.
02:32:17In omaha, we think it's going to be not much tomorrow night.
02:32:19On thursday, that is the main event for you.
02:32:23Morning snow and then aftersnoon snow showers probably about 5 to 8 inches in total.
02:32:28What's interesting about this storm is that it's not an incredibly strong area of low pressure.
02:32:32>> And so that's -- you're not going to have as much as a threat of losing visibility as much as you would really strong winds, right?
02:32:40>> Exactly.
02:32:41Not necessarily looking for blizzard conditions.
02:32:45What's really driving this is this big area of high pressure and the cold air that's coming down across the midwest and into the plains.
02:32:51So that's a huge part of the equation.
02:32:53Another big part of the equation is gulf moisture streaming northward.
02:32:59Just above the surface, the winds will be as strong as 60, maybe 70 miles per hour.
02:33:03Really bringing a lot of that gulf moisture northward.
02:33:08Even though the low is not going to be incredibly strong, when you've got a lot of moisture, a lot of cold air, that's enough to give you a major snowstorm.
02:33:14We're going to see a widespread travel mess along many of the major interstates here.
02:33:20Interstate 80.
02:33:21From nebraska all the way to southwest iowa.
02:33:2370 All the way over to kansas city where we could see over a foot of snow.
02:33:2835 Certainly.
02:33:29There again, your icy mix along 44.
02:33:32Significant icing possible south of there.
02:33:33And then 55 also seeing some of these very serious impacts.
02:33:37There's a look at the snow totals through friday.
02:33:40You've got a large area of 12 to 18 inches in general from 80 and down to 70 in west central and north central parts of kansas.
02:33:51We could see even more of that in spots.
02:33:53There could be a couple of feet of snow in some areas.
02:33:56Then you've got a much larger area of 6 to 12, extending out to 35 to kansas city.
02:34:046 To 12, a little more, in kc.
02:34:07We're not going to see very much in the western part of the lakes as the low is going to be weakening by that time.
02:34:14What's called the s-rep models.
02:34:18An ensemble of many models part of what we use this for is to determine the amount of confidence in the forecast.
02:34:24We have in previous storms seen a range going all the way from here to down here.
02:34:29When you see a very large spread, there's not a lot of confidence in the forecast.
02:34:34In this case, almost all the models in omaha are indicating a snowfall between 10 and 15 inches with the mean being right around 12, 13 inches.
02:34:43So that is a fairly high confidence forecast.
02:34:46We do thing there's a good chance you're going to be in for 10 inches, maybe 12.
02:34:52>> Most falling on thursday.
02:34:54>> Most coming down on thursday morning actually.
02:34:57And then by thursday afternoon, it's really going to be winding down.
02:35:00Here's the timing.
02:35:01There's the area of low pressure.
02:35:02Snow breaking out tomorrow ann controls parts of kansas and nebraska.
02:35:06There's that area of growing freezing rain we talked about that's really going to intensify on thursday morning.
02:35:12So that's going to be the critical time between interstates 44 and 30.
02:35:18Very strong winds also driving in from the east in the morning on thursday here in kansas city.
02:35:23So there could be near blizzard conditions.
02:35:25Winds 20 to 30 miles per hour.
02:35:27We'll see heavy snowfall rates around 70 and the 80 corridor.
02:35:31That will go into the afternoon.
02:35:33Then that storm is going to lift up into the northeast.
02:35:37As it's doing so, it's going to expand and weaken.
02:35:42It's not going to be anywhere near the same storm.
02:35:45>> We take another look at this at 50 past in the winter weather update but for now, back to crystal.
02:35:51>> Now, the difference between some of the winter precipitation.
02:35:55We're expecting a lot of talk about sleet.
02:35:58So what exactly is sleet.
02:35:59A lot of the people confuse sleet with hail for example.
02:36:04It's little tiny ice pellets.
02:36:06You know it's sleet because it bounces off of the surface.
02:36:09Then you get freezing rain.
02:36:11Freezing rain would be rain that actually reaches the surface that's below freezing.
02:36:16Much colder air near the surface.
02:36:19And freezes on contact.
02:36:20Then you have liquid.
02:36:22Freezes over surfaces and roadways.
02:36:24And that's when ice develops.
02:36:25This gets very dangerous.
02:36:26We are expecting ice in many states.
02:36:29We're going to look at that.
02:36:32Ice can form and weigh down power lines.
02:36:34That's how you get a lot of power outages.
02:36:37Just half an inch of ice can add 500 pounds per span of power line.
02:36:41A quarter inch of ice is a lot.
02:36:44Any little bit of ice is too much.
02:36:46But a half an inch of ice, that is certainly a lot.
02:36:50When you get down to just a quarter of an inch of ice, that can break off small branches.
02:36:55You don't need leafed out trees which we don't have this time of year.
02:36:58Just need some ice on the branches.
02:36:59And that can easily bring down some of those branches.
02:37:02So these are the areas we're most concerned about.
02:37:04With the global forecast center putting out some new numbers for our storm con especially in kansas city.
02:37:11When it comes to heavy snow, your commute on wednesday, again thursday morning, and the threat for ice in some areas including kansas into parts of missouri and arkansas.
02:37:21Chris.
02:37:21>> As we track winter storm q, we're getting help from the noaa hurricane hunters.
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02:43:22>>> you're watching "weather " we often talk about the dangerous but very important work performed by the member and women of the hurricane hunters.
02:43:31But they don't just stay on the ground all winter long.
02:43:35Meteorologist maria show us the different missions they've been taking.
02:43:41>> Reporter: Hurricane hunters fly into the eye to gather the up to date data.
02:43:47Did you know during the winter months this mission is a little different.
02:43:51The noaa plane is tracking extreme winter weather events across the country.
02:43:56>> We're dropping on this particular mission 19 drops.
02:44:00What those are, they're like weather balloons.
02:44:03Instead of going up from the ground, they're dropping from the aircraft to the surface of the water and we're collecting air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction.
02:44:12We're feeding all that information into the model.
02:44:153 To 5, even 7 day forecast.
02:44:19Have a little bit more information to deal with.
02:44:20>> Reporter: The aircraft has flown seven missions in the past nine days.
02:44:26Tracking storms as they form and head towards the continental u.s.
02:44:33>> This is anchorage earlier in the week, late last week.
02:44:37We've been flying numerous different patterns to kind of get information on the storm that's going up the east coast now, the storm that's about to develop in the southern plains.
02:44:48And a system that's gone into alaska recently.
02:44:50This is just the continuing series of those flights.
02:44:54>> Reporter: One of the biggest differences for the colder events they fly around the storms rather than directly into them.
02:45:01The results are the the same getting the latest data to help meteorologists better track storms.
02:45:08maria LaRosa, the weather channel.
02:45:12>>> It's now time for the top five videos here at the weather channel.
02:45:17Starting off with a snowy scene in michigan.
02:45:23>> This is michigan.
02:45:23Look at the visibility here.
02:45:24This is from lake-effect snow creating blizzard conditions.
02:45:28We had so much wind blowing and probably a pretty good little snow squall there.
02:45:36>> And a little break from the game for a snowball fight.
02:45:38Why sgl why not?
02:45:39Got to have some fun.
02:45:40>> This is in north carolina.
02:45:44Remember over the weekend we had rare snow.
02:45:46These are college guys having a little fun.
02:45:49>> And look at this spectacular sight in italy.
02:45:54>> Ed na erupting.
02:45:58That was earlier in morning captured on video.
02:46:01>> Not a great night for fighting a fire in minneapolis.
02:46:06So, so cold.
02:46:07And fire breaks out and you have to get out there and do your best to do it.
02:46:12Tough conditions for firefighters here.
02:46:13>> And how about number one, this is a look from the international space station revolving around earth from night today and back to night again.
02:46:22>> Likely a time lapse.
02:46:29Probably not moving this fast.
02:46:30We want to see your videos.
02:46:31Upload your videos at WEATHER.COM/iWITNESS.
02:46:36>> You can see real live drama during dangerous weather play out in the all new show reef wranglers.
02:46:45Find out how the crew's job is on the line when they lose control in changing conditions.
02:46:51>> The day-to-day trips out there is when it could change so faft.
02:46:57Sometimes it's just rain and wind.
02:46:58Sometimes it has a lot of fire in it.
02:47:02We don't like the fire.
02:47:03Waves are pick up, we got to move.
02:47:06>> Whoa.
02:47:10Oh, man.
02:47:11>> Get out.
02:47:12>> It's rocking like crazy, the wind is blowing.
02:47:15The weather conditions are dangerous.
02:47:18Somebody is going to get hurt.
02:47:20>> It has to be specific coordinates.
02:47:26They have deployed in the right spot next to each other and sitting upright so they promote marine life attachment.
02:47:33>> That looks good.
02:47:34>> That's not an easy task with the strong currents.
02:47:47>> There's too much tension on that wire.
02:47:54>> You can see much more of this new episode of "reef wranglers" 00 eastern here on the weather channel.
02:48:04>> More weather to talk about here on center center.
02:48:07>> Our storm analyst carl parker is going tobreak down the latest weather predictions for winter storm q including half an inch of ice.
02:48:17Details in the winter weather update.
02:48:19>>> First q already winding up in parts of california.
02:48:23This is a look at truckee.
02:48:24There's some snow on the roads right now.
02:48:27This is going to be a common scene for a huge portion of the country in the next few days.
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02:54:02>>> it's time for the winter weather update.
02:54:06Truckee, california, some snowy roads.
02:54:07This is in the mountains with winter storm q doing a number already.
02:54:11But carl parker is here, and you know what, I bet a lot of roads in a matter of a couple days in the plains are going to look just like that.
02:54:19>> Going to look exactly like that.
02:54:22We're going to be talking about a foot and a half in some spots and a lot of icing on top of that.
02:54:28Let's begin with the satellite picture in california.
02:54:31This is a series of photographs taken by the satellite, which is 22,000 miles up.
02:54:37Actually farther out than that asteroid was just a few days ago.
02:54:41And you notice here this plume of moisture that's coming up into california.
02:54:45That's where we're seeing the heavy snow that's driving down along the sierra and beginning to get into southern california.
02:54:52There's a lot of cold air with this system.
02:54:56Snow levels are going to be getting down to 2,000 feet in the sierra.
02:55:00You see the heavy rain and thunder coing into the southern part and some snow showing up in the mountains in ventura county.
02:55:11As this moves into los angeles, we're going to see snow at 3,000 it feet and the grapevine is over 4,000 feet.
02:55:19That's going to mean some serious travel issues north out of los angeles along interstate 5.
02:55:28>> A little bit of rain is going to cause some problems.
02:55:30Rush hour right now.
02:55:31It doesn't take much.
02:55:35>> That's right.
02:55:35It doesn't take much.
02:55:36The good news is we're going to clear the air out there to be able to see.
02:55:39>> Here's bad news associated with the storm.
02:55:41Possibly some major impacts because of this.
02:55:43>> There could be significant icing here in parts of missouri and arkansas.
02:55:48Here are the ingredients.
02:55:49We have the cold air and arctic high in place.
02:55:51So temperatures below 32 degrees at the surface.
02:55:54Then as the system comes out, it's going to grab warm and moist air.
02:56:00Some that will over top of the cold air.
02:56:06That allows rain to fall into colder air sitting in a shallow layer at the surface.
02:56:09The result is going to be serious icing impacts south of 34 and north of 30.
02:56:16A quarter of an inch to half an inch of ice accumulation.
02:56:23That can be enough to cause power outages.
02:56:24So start thinking now about what you might need to do if that becomes a problem.
02:56:26It looks like it will bye-bye.
02:56:32>> Hit the grocery store.
02:56:33>> Hit the store and have the batteries and flashlights.
02:56:35Let's take you to kansas city and talk about the impact here.
02:56:39One to three inches late tomorrow.
02:56:41Thursday morning, that's the main event.
02:56:44An additional six to ten inches coming down.
02:56:46A total of 10 to 15.
02:56:48This is going to be a major storm for kansas city.
02:56:54Here's the timing of that.
02:56:54Snow starts to break out in kansas and nebraska during the day tomorrow.
02:56:56It will intensify by later tomorrow and overnight thursday.
02:57:01Here's the area of significant icing we talked about in southern parts of missouri and northern arkansas.
02:57:07Strong winds also coming into the east and blowing that snow around.
02:57:09Probably not to the lvl of blizzard conditions, but we'll see reduced visibilities along i-80 and i-70.
02:57:17Heavy snowfall rates in the morning and then that's going to begin to taper off in the afternoon and the entire system then on friday is really going to begin to wind down, stretch out, expand and it's not going to be nearly the storm that it had been.
02:57:31But look at this very large area of 6 to 12 inches of snow.
02:57:36A core there in nebraska and kansas of a foot to a foot and a half and maybe more in some spots.
02:57:44>> It's going to be a huge storm.
02:57:45Here's crystal.
02:57:45>> We'll be with you the rest of the week for updates.
02:57:49Thanks for staying with us.
02:57:50Coming up next, "iceberg hunters" followed by "reef " we're back at 10:00 eastern.
02:58:00Live updates every 30 minutes.
02:58:0400 with in-depth analysis.
02:59:07>>> Good evening to you.
02:59:11I'm crystal egger with a live weather update.
02:59:12We'll start in the northeast where we're tracking rain and wind.
02:59:13Delays at some of the airports from philly up to laguardia because of the rain.
02:59:21Look at boston.
02:59:21You're in and out of light to moderate rain right now.
02:59:23Mild enough for rain.
02:59:24Not snow this time around.
02:59:26Light snow coming back into the new york city area across the eastern long island and into hartford.
02:59:32Albany reporting light rain which may transition to light snow.
02:59:37Not expected to accumulate.
02:59:39In the boston area, a dry morning by tomorrow.
02:59:46This is going to be a quick-moving storm.
02:59:47On the backside with the cold air around this low, we still have snow showers around the lakes into the ohio valley.
00:00:11>>> Winter storm q, a triple threat.
00:00:13Q has rained snow, ice, even severe weather to millions.
00:00:17Winter storm q covers a lot of real estate.
00:00:20And is expected to bring massive impacts to travel in the days ahead.
00:00:26We're keeping you ahead of the storm with expert analysis only the weather channel can bring you.
00:00:30From the weather channel headquarters in atlanta, you're " good evening and thanks for joining us.
00:00:37I'm kim cunningham.
00:00:38It is 1:00 in boston.
00:00:40It's midnight in st. louis.
00:00:41We have expert analysis of the million different sides of winter storm q in just a moment.
00:00:49First, let's go ahead and talk about hurricane season.
00:00:53It's not that far away.
00:00:55Just because it's over, it doesn't mean hurricane hunters' planes are not flying.
00:01:02They're in the air tracking extreme winter weather across the country.
00:01:08maria LaRosa has more.
00:01:10>> Hurricane hunters' aircrafts that fly into the eye of tropical cyclones to gather up-to-date weather data.
00:01:19Did you know during winter months the mission is different.
00:01:21The noaa plane is tracking extreme winter events across the country.
00:01:26>> What we're doing is dropping on this particular mission 19 drop zoens.
00:01:32Like weather balloons, instead of going up from the ground they're dropping from the aircraft to the surface of the water.
00:01:40Air temperature, pressure, wind speed, information, feeding all that information into the models so that the three to five, seven-day forecasts, have a little bit more information to deal with.
00:01:49>> The aircraft has flown seven missions in the past sin days, tracking storms as they form off the coast of alaska and head towards the continental u.s.
00:02:00>> Supported forecasts for this out of anchorage earlier in the week, late last week, thursday and friday.
00:02:06We've been flying numerous different patterns to kind of give information on the storm that's going up the east coast now, the storm that's about to develop in the southern plains.
00:02:17And the system that's going into alaska recently.
00:02:22And this is just a continuing series of those flights.
00:02:24>> One of the biggest differences between hunting hurricanes and winter storms, for the colder events they fly around the storms rather than directly into them.
00:02:31The results are the same, getting the latest data to help meteorologists better track storms.
00:02:37METEOROLOGIST maria LaRosa, the weather channel.
00:02:40>> Thank you so much.
00:02:41And the area that we're watching for winter storm q begins in the the west.
00:02:46Already seeing that snow from the sierra nevada mountain range to the hatch which a pes above 2,000 feet.
00:02:57An alert in denver, 2 to 4 inches of snow possible here.
00:03:01The mupg guillon rim will do well including flagstaff.
00:03:07The central rockies could use the snow.
00:03:09We could use snow but we don't want it like this in the plains, talking about some of you 12 to 18 inches of snow, maybe 2 feet plus.
00:03:17We want you to start taking action and think about this in kansas city, oklahoma city possibly seeing snow overnight tonight.
00:03:24This area is where we're expecting some of the heaviest snows, maybe up to lincoln, nebraska, as well.
00:03:30And then in southern missouri, northern arkansas, ice could be the problem.
00:03:36That could be enough, there could be enough accumulating on tree limbs, on power lines, that we may see power outages and you may lose power.
00:03:46Now is the time to take action and think about different travel plans, think about how you're going to -- what you're going to do if you lose power in these areas.
00:03:55A lot of this coming together as we're watching the storm system off the west coast, bringing snow now to southern california, will be the one we'll be watching, that's q.
00:04:07High pressure, arctic high pressure moving in, pushed a lot of cold air southward.
00:04:12We have the cold air in place.
00:04:14Of course, you bring moisture up over that and that's where the problems come in.
00:04:17As long as you have temperatures cold enough for snow, we're going to see moisture coming in, it's going to be snow.
00:04:23For some of us, it's going to be freezing rain.
00:04:26It's going to be sleet.
00:04:27It's going to be a mixture.
00:04:29So a big mess setting up starting as early as tonight for folks in oklahoma city.
00:04:34Really, tomorrow night into thursday morning is when the worst of it will be going on.
00:04:39So we'll watch that threat, especially for omaha, lincoln, kansas city.
00:04:45Interstate 70, interstate 80.
00:04:48I wouldn't doubt it if these interstates were closed at one point.
00:04:52Starting thursday morning into friday.
00:04:55So think about this.
00:04:57Truckers, anybody traveling in this area,ivity 35 as well, will all be affected by this.
00:05:02But this area you should definitely stay off, period, where we have the freezing rain that we're expecting here in the ozarks, northern arkansas.
00:05:11These areas will be a nightmare on the roadways.
00:05:15So heavy snow expected.
00:05:17Icy mix, including st. louis.
00:05:19This is all beginning really wednesday night into thursday is when conditions really go downhill in this area.
00:05:27So where's it coming from?
00:05:29Here's our southern branch, our subtropical jet, coming up into texas.
00:05:33We're going to start to see the moisture coming up.
00:05:36We also have this, the upper-level disturbance, coming over as well.
00:05:40So all this again coming together right here in the plains where we're going to see some of that wintry weather.
00:05:47Already seeing some of the rainfall now in northern texas that will eventually move up towards oklahoma city.
00:05:53But before it all gets there, we're talking 6 to 12 inches of snow for you, flagstaff, even the southern wasatch mountains, and then it gets into the plains wednesday night into thursday.
00:06:06Winter storms up wichita to kansas city.
00:06:09Winter storm watches up but i imagine they'll change to warnings tomorrow.
00:06:13So probably kids won't have school for a couple of days in some of these areas.
00:06:17That's something to think about, parents.
00:06:18Maybe a long weekend for a lot of us.
00:06:22Expecting that.
00:06:23How much snow?
00:06:2412 To 18 inches of snow from western parts of kansas all the way into southern nebraska.
00:06:30That is where we're expecting some of the heaviest snowfall totals.
00:06:34Kansas city through friday.
00:06:356 To 12 inches of snow here in omaha as well.
00:06:39I-80 and 70 will be nightmares.
00:06:41Of course, we'll detail the weather changes the next 24 hours in denver.
00:06:45We're also going to get an overwhelming amount of snow from winter storm q.
00:06:49Expert analysis on who gets more than a half foot of rain, that's right rain, before the end of the week.
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00:08:33>>> With gas prices topping $4 a gallon in places perhaps it's time for a different type of transportation.
00:08:38We'll look at the top five most bike-friendly cities.
00:08:41We'll show you what they're doing to make it safer for everyone on the streets after YOUR LOCAL ON THE 8s.
00:10:51>>> Now that you've got your LOCAL ON THE 8s IT'S TIME FOR Your weather count down.
00:10:55Looking at the top five most bike-friendly cities in the u.s.
00:10:59The cities have to have a population of 100,000 or more and must support a vibrant bike culture.
00:11:05Number five, chicago, 170 miles of on-street bike paths, plus a nearly 20-mile lakefront trail.
00:11:13Number four according to bicycling.com, washington, d.c.
00:11:1650 Miles of bike paths, buffered bike lanes on the pennsylvania avenue connecting the white house to the capitol building.
00:11:24Boulder, colorado, number three.
00:11:25As they expand bike parking and encourage businesses to make cycling an attractive option for employees and customers.
00:11:32Number two, minneapolis.
00:11:34It has 92 miles of on-street bikeways and 85 miles of off-street trails.
00:11:40And number one bike-friendly city, portland, oregon.
00:11:43They were the first city in the country to implement bike boxes at intersections to increase biker visibility.
00:11:51There are elementary school bike commuting trains with caravans of kids on bikes.
00:11:57>>> Now, this is a look at the next 24 with a look first in denver where things are going to look much different pretty soon.
00:12:05We'll see a lot more white in this view when that snow really kicks in.
00:12:10That's what we're expecting.
00:12:12Looking at temperatures OVERNIGHT TO BE INTO THE 20s.
00:12:15Cold enough for snow but not seeing the snow just yet.
00:12:18Right now we're going to take a look and see how things are shaping up.
00:12:23This is the water vapor.
00:12:24What you're looking at is the mid and upper levels of the als, moisture.
00:12:27This does a good job showing us the spin in the atmosphere.
00:12:30Right here, you can see that counterclockwise swirl.
00:12:36This is q winding up, bringing snow to the mountains of california and mountains in the lower elevations closer to the water and rain and strong storms throughout parts of california.
00:12:46This is eventually going to kick out and move across the country.
00:12:49This is how that's going to play out right now.
00:12:51Here's a look as we track it in the morning.
00:12:54You can see here's denver right there.
00:12:56We can see that snow throughout farthers of arizona, in utah, new mexico, in denver snow will get going by tomorrow, by noon, and really kick in there.
00:13:07Looking in the evening hours now, tomorrow evening, we're going to see that snow throughout portions of eastern colorado and then into kansas and nebraska, a lot of snow, in cases over a foot.
00:13:21Phoenix, temperatures into the 50s.
00:13:23You're looking at rain.
00:13:25This is 5:00 in the morning.
00:13:2700, temperatures cooling down.
00:13:35Lunchtime, 52 degrees.
00:13:36THE EVENING HOURS, LOWER 50s.
00:13:39You see that throughout much of the day.
00:13:40STAYING IN THE LOWER 50s.
00:13:41That's going to be the story at 8:00 tomorrow.
00:13:44Denver, tomorrow morning at 00, temperatures will be cold enough for snow.
00:13:4923 Degrees.
00:13:50Do not have anything falling from the sky at this point even at 7:00 in the morning.
00:13:54Then getting later into the day, by noon, there will be some snow, getting a little closer to the area now with temperatures still right around 30 degrees.
00:14:03Once that sun goes down, quickly DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 20s.
00:14:08>> We are getting your questions about winter storm q.
00:14:12Those answers are straight ahead.
00:14:13Plus get your umbrella and your rain boots if you live in the south, the storm could dump up to 10 inches of rain the next 10 days.
00:14:23An active pattern with storms moving through.
00:14:26While it's an amazing turnaround of temperatures from frigid in florida to record warmth, wait until you see just how hot it's going to get over the weekend.
00:14:35>>> Take a look at our new storm:con numbers out tonight.
00:14:38Omaha, 7 of 10.
00:14:40Here's the timing for you.
00:14:41Snow showers moving in tomorrow night.
00:14:44The heaviest snow comes now on thursday.
00:14:475 To 8 inches of snow on thursday.
00:14:50Big impacts to travel for rush hour thursday morning and thursday evening.
00:14:55We'll keep the snow going there.
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00:19:57>>> Time for "ask the weather " teresa has a question on facebook.
00:20:02About southeast kansas.
00:20:03She says, rain or snow?
00:20:05Hearing different forecasts for the area.
00:20:09Teresa, as we get closer we know a lot more about what to expect in southeast kansas.
00:20:13So let's start with a map of the entire state.
00:20:16Because we're looking at some significant weather here.
00:20:19Pretty much the majority of kansas under a winter storm warning.
00:20:22That's what you see in white.
00:20:24You get into southeast kansas, the extreme corner of the state, and we have a winter weather advisory.
00:20:30As far as snow accumulation, if you're doing any traveling on i-70, we may in fact see some closures due to snow and blowing snow here throughout the day wednesday and again on thursday.
00:20:40Looking at 12 to 18 inches along the interstate, wichita, more in the 6 to 12-inch range, same for kansas city.
00:20:49The southeast corner, I'm not exactly sure where you live, but we're a little less on our snowfall forecast.
00:20:55We're also anticipating some ice in some of these areas.
00:20:59Rain may actually fall and come into thatshallo cold layer of air.
00:21:03With the surface temperatures being at or below freezing, we can see ice accumulation there november tulsa, up to springfield, along i-44.
00:21:12Chris, as you know, this gets very dangerous when we've got ice on the roads.
00:21:16That could bring down free limbs and cause power outages.
00:21:19>> There's another side to this, the severe weather side and the heavy rain.
00:21:23For new orleans, memphis, and atlanta, get ready for a big soaker.
00:21:29Much of the south is rain-starved but there will be another batch of wet weather that for some it's going to be called the blessing, others a curse.
00:21:37Blessing because of the drought.
00:21:38Still at 82% drought in moderate drought.
00:21:42Exceptional drought, week before 12%.
00:21:45Now zero.
00:21:46The most intense part of the drought is not there.
00:21:48You can still see there is quite a bit of drought in georgia.
00:21:51That is going to change.
00:21:53Here is q, winter storm q, as it moves through there will be that threat for severe weather within some of this green you're going to have those thunderstorms.
00:22:02They're going to be developing on wednesday, so tomorrow, and then again on thursday.
00:22:07Around this warm front there will be a threat for severe storms.
00:22:12Also some very heavy rain associated with this as it moves through.
00:22:15Look at this.
00:22:15The next five days we're going to see, in some cases, 5 inches or more.
00:22:22Widespread areas with 2 to 3 inches, even more areas with 1 to 2 inches of rain.
00:22:27Look at georgia, this bull's-eye south of atlanta, more than 5 inches of rain.
00:22:32We have had quite a bit of rain here recently.
00:22:34But again, that's why it's kind of a good news/bad news situation.
00:22:38It looks like for you in atlanta, friday ask saturday are going to be the wettest days.
00:22:43>>> So many sides to this big storm.
00:22:45Let's take you into florida.
00:22:47This is one area where we're really not going to be dealing with winter storm q.
00:22:51We had a big temperature turnaround in miami after some of the coldest air of the year blasted in over the weekend.
00:22:58Of course, spring training myers and tampa.
00:23:03It is going to be hot.
00:23:05Let's see how temperatures are changing in the sunshine state.
00:23:08We did have some chilly air, especially for florida standards, just last weekend.
00:23:12These were the daytime highs.
00:23:15WE ONLY MADE IT INTO THE 40s Across the northern part of the state.
00:23:1950s INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, Including miami.
00:23:21OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20s AND 30s.
00:23:23There was even some frost for some of you.
00:23:26Tomorrow 77 in orlando.
00:23:2882 In ft. myers.
00:23:29It gets warmer throughout the week.
00:23:31On thursday, we're well into the 80s.
00:23:33If you're looking to escape any of that winter weather here's where you want to go in florida.
00:23:4186 In orlando on friday.
00:23:44We're flirting with records by the weekend, close to 90 degrees for february.
00:23:49Big temperature change from what we had last weekend.
00:23:52Had to bring out the jacket, chris, maybe for a day or two.
00:23:57And in florida, you're not used to that.
00:23:58It's going to be hot.
00:23:59Get ready for that, especially in daytona for the daytona 500.
00:24:03>>> Still ahead, we're going " tracking the snowy side, the icy side, and the severe side to this storm.
00:24:12Plus we're showing you the difference between ice and sleet.
00:24:15And the damaging impacts of both.
00:24:17The severe weather side of "q," the latest information, the forecast from our severe weather expert dr. greg forbes.
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00:29:11>>> We can already see the impacts from winter storm q in california.
00:29:16Heavy snow is blowing in the sierra, up to 10 inches of snow has already been reported near donner pass.
00:29:23Winter storm q has a lot more damage to do as it crosses the country.
00:29:28Good tuesday evening to you.
00:29:31We're going to go in-depth on winter storm q with chris and karl coming up in just a minute.
00:29:36First an update on the snow that's falling in the northeast and the midwest.
00:29:40This is not from winter storm q.
00:29:42But boy has it been snowy across the great lakes.
00:29:45You're looking at brand new iwitness video just into the weather channel.
00:29:49This shows the rough waves on the shores of lake michigan day.
00:29:5650 Plus-mile-per-hour winds all day long.
00:30:00Snow, waves overtopping ice.
00:30:02It's been a rough couple of weeks here, especially for the u.p. of michigan.
00:30:06You've had a nasty day.
00:30:10Burlington, vermont, more snow.
00:30:12Great news for ski resorts, of course.
00:30:15All the way to rutland, snow is falling.
00:30:18Higher elevations, snowfall.
00:30:21Portland, maine, in and out of the showers, light to moderate rain.
00:30:26All the way down to boston, you've got a soggy night, a soggy drive home, rain coming down.
00:30:32May see this transition to flakes overnight but we're not expecting any accumulation.
00:30:37Out along the cape just getting blasted with moderate to heavy rainfall.
00:30:41New york city, it was wet for us today.
00:30:43But we're clearing out now as the rain shifts off to the east.
00:30:47Winds still blowing here across the northeast.
00:30:50On the back side of this where we have cold air and that lake-effect snow, places like of michigan, been dealing with some pretty nasty weather, low visibility, high winds.
00:31:01This is what we're expecting late tonight and overnight.
00:31:04We clear out of this storm.
00:31:06It's a quick mover.
00:31:07Notice these streamers, lake effect snow showers continue tomorrow.
00:31:11We dry out in new york city.
00:31:12We dry out up into boston.
00:31:14It is going to be cooler and more winter weather comes in for the weekend.
00:31:18Let's go in-depth with chris and carl and talk about our next massive storm moving across the country.
00:31:26>> Crystal, in some areas, some cities and regions, it looks like a slam dunk.
00:31:31There's going to be a ton of snow.
00:31:33Other areas, there's a question mark of what's going to be falling from the sky.
00:31:36>> A lot of the broad strokes the models have come together.
00:31:41A tremendous storm, kansas, parts of nebraska.
00:31:44We're going to get an ice storm too.
00:31:46Other areas where the amount of warm air that's going to come up is an open question.
00:31:53Let's focus first of all on the snow and ice in the plains and midwest.
00:31:57And here's a look at the timing for st. louis.
00:32:01 louis is among these areas where it's a very tricky forecast.
00:32:05How much warm air is going to come up.
00:32:08What we're going for now is 1 to 2 inches of snow in the morning.
00:32:11In the afternoon, wintry mix, some sleet and freezing rain getting in there.
00:32:16A storm total of 1 to 3.
00:32:17That would assume that warm air does make a fair amount of northward progress.
00:32:22If that is not the case, there could be quite a bit more snow in st. louis.
00:32:27This is one of those areas where the forecast is very tricky.
00:32:30>> We know there's other areas where it's not as tricky and we're going to get clobbered with snow.
00:32:35>> Absolutely.
00:32:36Going into that, you've got this huge area of arctic high pressure.
00:32:39A lot of cold air.
00:32:40What's interesting about this storm is it's not really a terribly strong storm.
00:32:44It's strong enough.
00:32:45But it's not incredibly strong like a lot of the blizzards we see in the northeast.
00:32:50We've got plenty of cold air, we've got plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf of mexico.
00:32:55That moisture is going to work into that cold air and create this widespread travel mess.
00:33:00Big problems developing late wednesday going into thursday morning across 80 here, across 70, up along 35, 44 certainly, especially south of 44.
00:33:10That's where we could see significant icing.
00:33:14Also along 55.
00:33:15So there's a look at the storm totals.
00:33:18This is our forecast through friday.
00:33:20Large area of 6 to 12.
00:33:22Parts of iowa and kansas ask also into missouri here.
00:33:26Then in central kansas, western kansas, southern parts of nebraska, that's where we're thinking it's going to be 12 to 18.
00:33:32But there could be even more than that in some areas.
00:33:36>> How fast is this snow going to come down?
00:33:39>> It's going to start out fairly light.
00:33:41It's really going to pick up on thursday morning.
00:33:43In fact, this is what we call the sref.
00:33:48Pretty good confidence about the confidence in omaha, generally amounts 10 to 15 inches.
00:33:53>> Each of this is a different forecast model, like a subway stop but each one is a different point in time as opposed to a different point in the map.
00:34:01>> A different point in time.
00:34:02Then families of models and they run them on slightly different initial conditions.
00:34:06And the result is that we get this average which is right here around a foot for omaha.
00:34:13The fact that they're tightly clustered, that's a high confidence forecast.
00:34:17We feel good about that part of the forecast.
00:34:20>> You might have one on the bottom, and one off the charts.
00:34:23>> That's what we saw with the last big storm in the northeast.
00:34:2625 Inches to zero.
00:34:27Because the models didn't know how close to the coast it was going to be.
00:34:31>> The fact that they're close together gives us confidence.
00:34:35Like spaghetti plots in a hurricane track.
00:34:38If they're all together, or if they're far apart.
00:34:43>> The european model doing a pretty good job showing you know breaking out on wednesday.
00:34:48Then it picks up in intensity late wednesday into thursday morning.
00:34:51That's going to be primetime here.
00:34:53Notice the area of pink.
00:34:54That is the freezing rain and sleet along 44 and north of 30.
00:34:59Could be significant icing there.
00:35:01Power outages possible in arkansas and missouri.
00:35:04We're also see strong winds coming in from the east.
00:35:07Not because the low is so strong but because there's a big difference in pressure between the low and the high off to the north and fairly intense snowfall rates on thursday morning going through the morning and then into the afternoon.
00:35:20Now here is where the rpm might be a little bit too ambitious about this.
00:35:24You see it's got a lot of snow coming into st. louis.
00:35:27Holding off that warm air to the south aloft and keeping that freezing rain to the south and then you notice it brings up the freezing rain into the ohio valley, then we get more snow here, although the storm weakening overall as we're going into thursday.
00:35:41So not much snow at all moving into chicago.
00:35:43What I want to show you is the nam model, showing us a different solution for st.
00:35:50Louis.
00:35:50This blue line is important because that is where the warmer air is.
00:35:55 louis in all snow, in which case they would get a lot of snow, the nam model brings that warm air right up in which case you'd see probably just a little bit of snow, then a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain.
00:36:10We have a lot less confidence about that part of the forecast.
00:36:13>> And that's what's going to be tricky about some of these cities.
00:36:16>> Very tricky.
00:36:18We'll try to fine tune that in the next day or so.
00:36:21>> Here's a live look.
00:36:22 louis, missouri, quiet tonight.
00:36:25This is, as carl was talking about, one place that could see icy driving from winter storm q.
00:36:31We're talking about anything from accumulating snow to sleet and freezing rain.
00:36:35Most of the weather arrives for louis by thursday morning.
00:36:38So we're expecting a tough rush hour on thursday, getting out to work.
00:36:44I want to draw your attention to com, driving difficulty index.
00:36:49And if you're on this page you can select a particular city.
00:36:53I went with st. louis.
00:36:54And find out if there are any alerts out.
00:36:57Obviously the storm hasn't moved in just yet.
00:37:00Ahead of it there are some weather advisories.
00:37:03Zoom in and find out if there's ice forecast for this stretch of interstate, if you happen to be doing any traveling.
00:37:08But in a lot of these areas, we discourage you to do any type of traveling until this storm moves out.
00:37:16It's going to be dangerous, especially where we expect ice on the roads.
00:37:19That includes parts of kansas, nebraska, into missouri and northern arkansas.
00:37:24The ice potential can be very dangerous.
00:37:27>> As we track winter storm q, it's not just the snow we're going to have to watch out for.
00:37:32Our severe weather expert will break down the tornado threat from texas to mississippi.
00:37:37Plus we go in-depth business winter storm q.
00:37:39.
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00:43:20>>> welcome back to "weather " I'm crystal egger.
00:43:26Winter storm q could be more severe weather to mississippi for what could be the third time since christmas.
00:43:34 greg forbes shows us when and where the threat of tornados will be a concern.
00:43:38>> We're going to see a severe weather threat roll across the gulf coast states as we've seen so many times this winter.
00:43:45This time wednesday night, lower forms in the southwest texas.
00:43:48The warm front doesn't get too far north, so the unstable air is south of the warm front.
00:43:54North, it's a cooler, drier, east flow.
00:43:56That will keep a shallow, cool layer there.
00:43:59But low-level jet, fast winds, a few thousand feet above the ground, may push that warm air over the top of the front and offer hail as far north as southern parts of oklahoma.
00:44:10It will be a pretty strong jet stream, disturbance wind that as well.
00:44:14Most of its energy heading toward the cooler air, including that cold pocket aloft.
00:44:19It will begin to make a fringe hit on the unstable air on wednesday night.
00:44:24So that's when the severe threat will begin, childress to san antonio and san angelo up into the dallas area.
00:44:31A low tornado threat in the southern corridor of this red-shaded area.
00:44:35We head into thursday.
00:44:36The weather system continues to push east, the low north and east.
00:44:40The cold front due east and the warm front does not move too far to the north.
00:44:44So that means the warm, moist air is limited in how big an extent it covers.
00:44:50We may still get hail north of the warm front in that low-level jet.
00:44:56The pocket angles its way toward the winter part of the system rather than charging east toward that real warm, unstable air at the surface.
00:45:02It's not a situation in which everything is coming together for severe weather.
00:45:06With that warm front, with that low, the warm, moist flow at low levels, we'll have some severe weather and at least some tornado threat by thursday evening.
00:45:15The upper cold pocket continuing to move away from that moisture.
00:45:19Here's the outlook then on thursday.
00:45:22Some spotty, damaging winds, some hail, and isolated tornados anywhere from the east parts of texas across louisiana into mississippi.
00:45:29I've given a tornado condition index of 3 along parts of mississippi and louisiana.
00:45:33About a 30% chance of a tornado.
00:45:34Stay safe.
00:45:38.
00:45:42>> For some areas there's a great chance of a lot of snow, tough traveling.
00:45:45What could be crip pemming is that freezing rain threat.
00:45:4950 inches of ice accumulation, branches coming down, if they're near power lines and power lines come down, that is going to be the worry in northern arkansas and southern parts of missouri.
00:46:04So let's take a look at what is going into this, what is driving this.
00:46:08You've got this big area of high pressure, arctic high pressure.
00:46:11A lot of the cold air that's going to be very stubborn to move out.
00:46:15As the storm moves in, what it's going to do is draw up warm and moist air.
00:46:20Motor of this warm front, that's going to be moving in aloft or above the ground.
00:46:25And that will mean that we'll get rain developing in that warm air and it's going to be following into the shallow layer of cold air at the surface.
00:46:34And that's why we're going to see that freezing rain.
00:46:36On top of that, I want to show you something from wright weather.
00:46:44Notice in here that area of lighter green, yellow-ish, that's the stronger upper-level wind.
00:46:51As that moves in, through the morning hours and then into the afternoon, as that moves in, that area of stronger wind, we see more lift in the atmosphere.
00:47:02And that lift working with the moisture that's already in place is going to create heavier rain, and in fact, even thunderstorms.
00:47:08So there could be times when we get heavy, freezing rain and thunderstorms.
00:47:13And that's why it's going to be 25 5 inches of ice accumulation.
00:47:19In fact, in this area, there's about a 40% chance that we'll 5 inches of ice accumulation.
00:47:27In which case we would almost certainly see widespread power outages.
00:47:32That will be possible in areas that are farther to the south and west.
00:47:37Little rock, potential power smith, along 44 in springfield, could be an inch of sleet accumulation along 44.
00:47:45That will also extend further eastward.
00:47:48Obviously very serious travel problems on top of all of that.
00:47:51>> There's really nothing you can do except wait for that to melt?
00:47:54>> Exactly.
00:47:55>> That's ice you're talking about.
00:47:56>> Be prepared, have everything that you would need if your power goes out.
00:48:00>> That's a look at that.
00:48:02Take a look at the snow and the enormous amounts expected out of that coming up in the "winter weather update.
00:48:08>> We have plenty more to talk about when it comes to winter weather here on "weather center " carl parker will be back, he'll break down the latest model projections surrounding winter storm q, including the threat 5 inches of ice in the mid mississippi valley.
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00:53:58>>> time for your "winter " there's a lot to cover.
00:54:03Carl parker, we're going to go in-depth and figure out some of the challenges with this storm.
00:54:07>> You know, in some ways this storm has been very, very easily forecasted because the models have been in good agreement about this being a major snow storm across the plains for a while now.
00:54:18That part of it has been fine.
00:54:19There are other, more specific areas where we're having a little more difficulty.
00:54:24Take a look at the timing in a couple of cities.
00:54:26Our forecast in kansas city, 1 to 3 inches of snow late.
00:54:31Thursday, that's the main event.
00:54:32Heavy snow coming in.
00:54:35An additional 6 to 10.
00:54:36We're thinking in total, probably about 8 to 12 inches of snow.
00:54:40So quite a bit of snow there in kansas city.
00:54:42>> That's one of the biggest storms we've had in kansas city for a couple of years.
00:54:46>> It's been really quiet this season.
00:54:47As you say, for a couple of years.
00:54:49We had an incredibly warm winter last year.
00:54:52 louis, it's a more difficult forecast.
00:54:54We're thinking not a lot of snow.
00:54:56Then an afternoon wintry mix.
00:54:58So a total of 1 to 3.
00:55:00But if the warmer air aloft doesn't make it as far north, it's possible we'll see more snow in st. louis.
00:55:08We'll talk about that in a moment.
00:55:09What's driving this is this big area of high pressure supplying a lot of cold air, bringing that down into the plains, plenty of moisture coming up from the gulf of mexico.
00:55:20This area of low pressure is actually not going to be incredibly strong.
00:55:24It doesn't need to be incredibly strong because we've got plenty of moisture, plenty of cold coming together.
00:55:30That's enough to produce this widespread travel mess across interstates 80, 70, 35.
00:55:37A lot of which is going to be occurring overnight wednesday and then early on thursday.
00:55:42>> I wouldn't be surprise tuesday you get enough heavy snow and blowing snow if they close stretches of these interstates.
00:55:49We see it on i-70 and i-80 all the time.
00:55:53>> Especially farther northward.
00:55:54It's drier farther northward, the snow is going to be more powdery and easily blown around.
00:56:00There's a look, 6 to 12 kansas city south of des moines to wichita.
00:56:0412 To 18 from 80 and down across i-70 in central and western parts of kansas.
00:56:10Here is the omaha snow fast from the sref.
00:56:15Tight clustering, so there's general agreement about there being a good bit of snow, 10 to 15 inches there in omaha.
00:56:22>> If you live in nebraska, you might see cantore out there.
00:56:26>> Yeah.
00:56:26>> Omaha or lincoln.
00:56:27>> He is going to be out there.
00:56:29>> These always a bad sign.
00:56:31>> If he comes, you know something wad's going to happen.
00:56:33The timing of the storm, the snow developing tomorrow across parts of nebraska and kansas.
00:56:38It's really going to pick up in intensity by late tomorrow.
00:56:42Notice this area in pink.
00:56:45That is the sleet and freezing rain along 44.
00:56:48And along 30 here.
00:56:49The question is just how far north does the warmer air aloft get to create that freezing rain and sleet?
00:56:56Will it make it up into st.
00:56:59Louis and for how long?
00:57:00The strong wind coming into parts of kansas, that will be blowing that snow around.
00:57:05Very heavy snowfall rates in kansas thursday morning.
00:57:07Then the entire thing is going to slowly begin to wind down, sort of expand and lose a lot of its punch.
00:57:14It's not going to be nearly the same storm as it moves up into chicago.
00:57:17Still freezing rain in parts of the ohio valley.
00:57:20>> The devil's in the details when it comes to the winter precipitation type.
00:57:24>> Yeah, absolutely.
00:57:25And what this model just showed louis would stay in the snow, while other models are not showing that at all.
00:57:31I want to show you one of these models, the nam model, north american model, a shorter-term model, nam is showing the breezing line coming up here louis in which case we wouldn't see much in the way of snow.
00:57:49Rpm model showing quite a bit of snow for st. louis.
00:57:53More details tomorrow.
00:57:54>> Thanks, carl.
00:57:54Chris?
00:57:56>> Thank you, guys.
00:57:58Thank you for staying with " back in two hours.
00:58:01Between now and then, live weather updates every 30

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